Two New Features: Senate Simulation & Trump’s Approval Rating
By: Logan Phillips
Date: 7/31
Today, we are launching two new interactive features for Race to the WH. The first is the Trump Approval Rating Index, and the second is the Senate Forecast Simulation.
The Trump Approval Rating Index shows President Trump’s approval and disapproval rating in every state. We have been collecting this information for months - and it plays an important part in the forecast, especially earlier on in the election cycle. Now, for the first time, we are putting it all in one, easily accessible place.
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating by State
Photo Credit: Created for Interactive Feature on Infogram - Designed by Logan Phillips, Editor and Chief of Race to the WH
How do we calculate this? Whenever a new Presidential election poll is released, we look for two things: Biden v. Trump polling, and Trump’s Approval & Disapproval rating. Then, just like we do with head to head polls, we calculate a weighted polling average. Polls that are from pollsters with a great track record, that were conducted recently, and that interviewed a large sample size get extra weight. We also take away most of the weight from a poll if it is not the most recent one released by the pollster, so no one polling company dominates the average. Finally, we correct for the pollster’s historic bias.
The Senate Forecast Simulation
The second new feature we’re launching today gives you a sneak peak of what election day might just look like, by showing five simulations of the Senate Forecast - complete with an election day style map, and a table showing every seat that Democrats & Republicans were able to successfully flip. Every day, we simulate the election 50k times before uploading the results to the site, and this feature shows you exactly what those simulations look like.
Photo Credit: Created for Interactive Feature on Infogram - Designed by Logan Phillips, Editor and Chief of Race to the WH