The 2026 Senate Forecast

Designed by Logan Phillips

The RacetotheWH Senate Forecast predicts the outcome of every Senate race in 2026 using a data-driven model that factors in the latest polling, historic trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. Every day, we simulate the election 50,000 times to get the best projection we can on how likely each party is to win the majority.

We’ve correctly predicted the Senate majority in the last three election cycles, and came just one seat shy in 2022 of perfectly predicting the # of seats the parties would win in both Senate and the House - which was closer than any election forecaster that cycle.

Background on the 2026 Senate Race

After a successful 2024 election cycle, Republicans seized the Senate majority, securing a 53–47 advantage. Democrats will be on the hunt to expand their ranks and will most likely be boosted by favorable national headwinds, as midterms usually provide fertile ground for the party out of the White House.

However, outright securing a majority will be a challenge; Democrats will need to flip four seats to take a 51–49 seat majority (a 50-50 tie would be broken by Vice President JD Vance). If Democrats can flip two more seats, it would be a successful cycle, and it would give them an excellent shot at taking the Senate in 2028, when the GOP will be defending North Carolina and Wisconsin.

In 2026, Democrats’ best two offensive opportunities are in Maine and North Carolina. They’ll also be competitive in Ohio, particularly if former Senator Sherrod Brown can be coaxed to run for the seat. Their stretch target is Alaska, a former Republican stronghold that still favors the GOP, but is moving faster towards Democrats than any other state in the nation since 2008. 

Republicans, on the other hand, will be primarily focused on defense. However, they have two genuine opportunities to flip a seat. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is up for re-election and could be vulnerable after a narrow victory six years ago, particularly if the GOP can recruit Governor Brian Kemp to run for the seat. Michigan is a tantalizing target as well, especially after Senator Gary Peters announced his retirement.

After you’ve checked out our National Senate Forecast, be sure to explore the latest Senate polls. You can also follow the latest polling for the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, and track the latest updates for the NYC Mayoral race. Soon, we will be launching many more features, including the House Forecast, and predictions for Governor races, with deep dives for the NJ and VA races in 2025. We will also be launching a feature that let you simulate the 2026 Senate race, where you can press the play button, and watch as races are called in each part of the country as polls begin to close.