2028 Republican Primary Polling Average

Forecast and Graphics Designed by: Logan Phillips

RacetotheWH is tracking the latest Presidential Primary polls for the 2028 election. We combine them into a weighted polling average, for both the national polling and the polling in each state. As more state polls become available, you can explore our interactive polling map, which highlights the leading candidate in every state with at least one poll.

In the polling average, more weight is given to polls:
1. Published by Pollsters that have a Strong Track Record of Accuracy
2. That Interviewed a Large Sample of Voters
3. Were Released Recently - Especially as we Get Closer to the Election

We account for pollsters' historical partisan bias and assign less weight to polls released by campaigns. At this stage of the race, we include every candidate who is even semi-regularly featured in polls. As the election approaches, we will narrow the field to candidates who are either polling well or are most likely to run.

Track Record: Since RacetotheWH launched in 2020, it has had one of the strongest track records of any forecaster. In 2022, we came one race short of calling the exact number of House seats the GOP would win in the midterms. An independent review found our probabilities for House and Senate races were the most accurate of any forecaster.

Features Launching in Early 2025: 2026 Senate and House Forecast, Midterm Polling Average