California Governor Forecast & Polls

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

California Governor Gavin Newsom won a decisive victory with the eyes of the political world squarely upon him, avoiding the same fate of former Governor Gray Davis by foiling the recall efforts intended to prematurely end his Governorship. Now, he’s running for a full second term, and there are now rumblings that Newsom might have his mind on a bit more, perhaps even for the 2024 election. Another big victory would help position him to claim an electoral mandate, albeit one coming from a blue state.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right, and was more accurate than all of its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.