Texas Governor Predictions & Polls

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Democrats have been dreaming of flipping the Lonestar State for a long time, and no state has shifted further towards Democrats short of Alaska since the 2012 presidential election. However, if recent elections are any guide, the Republican party still has the clear edge in Texas. This hasn’t scared Beto O’Rourke from launching a challenge to electoral heavyweight Greg Abbott. Beto is no stranger to running in tough elections, and he shocked the nation in 2018 with a razor-close loss to Senator Ted Cruz, losing by just 2.6% just six years after Cruz won his first election by 16%.

Now he is gunning for one of the most successful politicians in Texas’s history. Greg Abbott has been a perfect 7-0 in elections since he first won statewide office in the late 1990s. The closest anyone has come to beating him was Lupe Valdez in 2018, and she still lost by 13%. Beto O’Rourke will be the toughest opponent Abbot has faced in a long time, but he has the advantage of favorable turf and a long record of blowout victories. To overcome the odds, Beto O’Rourke will need to once again win more than his fair share of hearts and minds of swing voters in Texas, while mobilizing an enormous number of democratic-friendly voters to go to the polls during a midterm election.

Our Governor forecast tracks all the latest polling in the Texas race and projects the final result. In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation. We were more accurate than almost all our competitors at predicting the margin in close Senate races, and our single best state was Georgia, where we correctly predicted a Democratic triple victory.