Iowa 2024 GOP Primary Polling & Predictions

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The 2024 GOP Primary starts with the Iowa Caucus - which serves the critically important role of consolidating the field. In most recent primaries, the winner of the Iowa Caucus became one of the top contenders for the nomination - even when they were polling in the single digits just weeks earlier.

On this page, we use the current polling to predict the results of the Iowa election if it were to be held tomorrow. This is more of a “Now-Cast” than a forecast. Primary elections in Iowa are fluid and ever-changing, so expect these numbers to change frequently. 

We also project the number of delegates each candidate would win. This is critically important in other states - because the nomination isn’t won by the candidate that gets the most votes but instead by the candidate that wins the most delegates.

Keep in mind - our Primary forecasts are driven by polling and polling alone. This should provide a general idea of how the primary is likely to go - but there is much greater room for big misses than our typical election forecast, which has been robustly tested on decades of past elections. As a result, we advise you to use it as a guide but keep in mind that this is only going to be as accurate as the polling. Slight adjustments are made to take into account candidate momentum, and voters' second-choice preferences when candidates drop out.

Speaking of which, with Chris Christie dropping out of the race, we have redistributed his support based on who Iowa Christie voters have told pollsters they would support as their second choice. By far, the biggest beneficiary is Nikki Haley. 

Finally, we’ve included a few key signals here that show which candidates are best positioned to rise. Keep a close eye on which candidates voters say are their second choice, who has strong favorable/unfavorable ratings with voters, and how each candidate is performing with key demographic groups.

In 2022, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasters in the nation. We came the closest to predicting the GOP’s final # of seats in both the House and Senate -and we’re already forecasting the 24 Senate Election.