Biden is on the Air in Texas - but his real audience? Americans everywhere
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)
By: Logan Phillips
Date: 7/14
Democrats have been dreaming of winning the Lone Star state for a long time - lulled by the promise of a growing Latino population that is quickly coming of voting age, and a sharp shift in the suburbs away from the Republican party. In 2018, those dreams reached a fever pitch, hitched to the meteoric rise of an insurgent Beto O’Rourke campaign that came within less than three percent of beating Senator Cruz.
While Trump remains the favorite here, it is entirely feasible that 2020 could be the year Democrats finally triumph in Texas. Joe Biden has taken his first ever lead in the state polling average, and the Race to the White House forecast has him winning a touch over 40% of the time. No Democrat Presidential candidate in the 21st Century has had a better shot of winning Texas then Joe Biden.
The Biden Campaign gave a wink to those aspirations yesterday, when they spent $500k on their first television ad in Texas of the General Election. This has the appearance of a bold, even reckless move, but behind the political curtain Team Biden is making a smart tactical decision. After all, $500k is hardly a game changing investment in an enormous state like Texas, home of over 15 media markets and 30 million people. You are going to need a heck of a lot more than this to make a difference here, and halfhearted moves are not effective.
As President’s Obama former Chief Strategist recently tweeted, the “First rule or presidential campaign planning: lock down the states you must have by making sure your operations and ads are funded there for the duration. Then you expand to more ambitious targets.”
Biden took a narrow lead in Texas in the Race to the White House Polling Average
Further, while Texas is shifting towards the center, it remains more burgundy then purple. Think about it this way – Joe Biden and Donald Trump are essentially tied here, but Biden has a nine-point lead in the national polls. If the Vice President can win the Lone Star State, he will almost certainly have already locked down more than enough states to win 270 votes. As attractive as a Texas sized exclamation point would be on election day, it should not be the top priority because winning bonus electoral votes does not win you any extra time in the White House.
Shrewdly, Biden has spent the majority of his resources in six states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. This shouldn’t discourage voters, volunteers and operatives in Texas to be engaged – their efforts could help win a Senate seat, make Presidential campaign history, and build the infrastructure and turnout that will be needed as Texas becomes even more in play in the years to come.
This begs the question: What did Biden buy with $500k? First, he can scare the Trump campaign into spending more money here on defense - which they are already doing at a pretty high clip. However, the big win here was a positive news cycle that reinforced a powerful winning message that was covered by almost every national and many local news stations across the nation. Biden’s advertisement was shown in its entirety by most networks, often multiple times.
Even in the craziness of the nonstop news cycle of 2020 chaos, you are guaranteed to gain buzz for pure moxie as a Democrat when you try to compete in Texas of all places. Evidentially, the Biden campaign saved some of their best work for this moment – and its an opening salvo of a campaign message that could potentially be devastatingly effective because it achieves three things:
First, it has a message that perfectly matches the moment and addresses the defining issue of this election.
Second, it shows an authentic depiction of Biden’s best traits, and shows what makes him different from most politicians.
Third, it highlights Donald Trump’s greatest weaknesses and creates a favorable contrast
COVID 19 will be undoubtedly be one of the defining issues in this election, and chances are high that the candidate who convinces the American people that they are best positioned candidate to handle the virus will end up victorious. States from the Gulf to the Golden Coast are getting slammed by rising case numbers and creeping death tolls.
Photo Credit: Graphic Designed on Infogram by Race to the WH Editor in Chief, Logan Phillips
President Franklin Delano Roosevelt once said that the American people can take any kind of bad news right on the chin if you give them the facts, show them empathy, and show what you're going to do to fix it. Everything the Vice President says in the ad makes the case that he is a leader who can do exactly that. This is not just an argument about competence - he's making the case that he has the compassion and vision needed to unite the country, make people know their pain is shared and understood, and remind the nation that we will get through this together.
“I’m thinking of all of you today across Texas. The rising case numbers is causing fear and apprehension. People are frightened, and their especially worried about their parents, their grandparents, their loved ones who are most at risk. This virus is tough, but Texas is tougher. We can stop the spread, but its up to all of us to do it. …We are all in this together. We will fight this together. Together, we’ll emerge from this stronger than we were when we began.”
This is where the second part comes in – few men or women in America are better placed to be a credible voice when its come to showing empathy to those worried about their loved ones being in jeopardy – for few have been more acquainted with loss then Joe Biden. The day after he won his election to the Senate, Biden’s wife and daughter were taken from him far before their time in a tragic car accident. Every day, he took the train home from Washington to Delaware to hug his remaining two boys as they fell asleep to make sure they knew they were not alone.
Photo Credit: Graphic Designed on Infogram by Race to the WH Editor in Chief, Logan Phillips
Forty years later, America watched their Vice President lose his son to brain cancer, while still bearing the world’s responsibilities on his shoulders. When Biden says that “I want every single American to know, if you’re sick, if your struggling, if you’re worried about how you will get through the day, I will not abandon you, we’re all in this together,” you can hear in his voice that he means it, and if you know half his story, then you know that he’s lived it.
Third and finally, Biden is creating a contrast with Donald Trump on his two arguably greatest perceived weaknesses: empathy, and COVID 19. After spending two months focusing on the virus, Trump acts like the Coronavirus problem is fading and America is in the midst of a breakneck economic recovery, decrying the rising cases as simply a result of rising test rates. Trump takes little time in his interviews, rallies, or campaign ads to acknowledge the challenge Americans are going through in this moment, let alone honor those who have lost their lives - not even the doctors on the front lines.
Photo Credit: Graphic Designed on Infogram by Race to the WH Editor in Chief, Logan Phillips
His disinterest in confronting the defining challenge of his presidency and his insistence that the economy is doing great despite 30 million workers filing for unemployment has left many voters feeling he is more concerned with statues and re-election then their health or even economic wellbeing. When Biden says he is not going to abandon you, the secondary message is that Donald Trump has abandoned you – and its time for a president with empathy who will have your back.
Photo Credit: Graphic Designed on Infogram by Race to the WH Editor in Chief, Logan Phillips
Right now, Joe Biden is the frontrunner primarily because Americans disapprove so strongly of President Trump. Now that Biden has narrowed his financial disadvantage to Trump and is increasingly on the air in swing states, he has a chance to solidify his lead and position himself for success in a potential presidency by trying to convince Americans that he’s not just an inoffensive alternative, but is the man for this moment, and that under his leadership the United States can re-emerge from this crisis stronger than ever.