Florida Governor Election

Predictions & Polls

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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may have his eyes set on the Republican nomination in the 2024 GOP Primary, but his presidential ambitions likely rest on his ability to win re-election in 2022. Democrats' hopes of an upset are buoyed by the razor-thin margin of the 2018 governor election, where DeSantis won by just 0.4%, the closest election in state history. However, Republicans have several reasons to be confident as well. First, DeSantis was able to outlast the blue tidal wave that swept Democrats into the House on an over 8% win in the national popular vote, and the political environment will likely be more favorable in 2022. Second, Florida has shifted about 4% towards the Republican party since 2018, so Democrats will have to navigate their way through more treacherous political terrain to secure victory. The Democratic nominee will be former Governor Charlie Crist. Our Florida Primary Forecast predicted Crist would beat Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried 58.5% to 35.8%. The actual result was 59.7% to 35.3%.

The Forecast is a combination of polling, Florida’s political lean, approval ratings, and Ron DeSantis’s performance in the 2018 election, and the feature is updated after every new poll. Later, in 2022, it will include fundraising as well. Make sure to check out the Senate Forecast for 2022. In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters in the nation, and was closer to the final margin on average than 538.