Georgia Governor Forecast & Polls

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Stacey Abrams was the first Democrat in well over a decade to come within striking distance of a statewide victory in the Peach State. In retrospect, it was a clear harbinger of future success, as Democrats followed her near-miss with a triple victory in 2020 in the Senate and Presidential elections. Now, Abrams will try to win in a national political cycle that is likely to be less favorable for Democrats than in 2018, albeit on a battleground that has shifted in their favor over the last four years. Republican Governor Brian Kemp easily dispatched with Senator David Perdue to secure the nomination and a re-match against Abrams, despite a years-long campaign by Donald Trump to punish him for not meddling in the 2020 election on his behalf.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. This was particularly true in Georgia, where we anticipated all three of Democrat’s narrow victories, and called Raphael Warnock the frontrunner over a month before most other prognosticators. Update: We’ve now upgraded the forecast to include the runoff. Abrams is performing better in our simulations of the runoff than in round one because she only makes the runoff if she outperforms her polls, and is by extension a stronger candidate than the current polling suggest.