Maine Governor Forecast & Polls

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Republican Paul LePage became infamous as Governor of Maine for being a pugnacious politician who loved nothing more than a political brawl. He was, as LePage is fond of saying, “Trump before Trump”. He was locked out of running in 2018, as Maine has a constitutional ban on Governors running for more than two consecutive terms. He was replaced by Democratic Governor Janet Mills, a longtime political hand in Maine Politics who became the first female governor in Maine history.

However, LePage has missed the Governor’s office and jumped right back in for the 2022 race. Janet Mills and LePage are far from strangers - they had a tortured relationship after Mills became Attorney General in 2013. Janet Mills was furious when LePage vetoed a ban on gay conversion therapy. LePage tried to cut off funds from the Attorney General’s office when she refused to represent him in Federal Court after he tried to drop young Mainers from its Medicaid rolls.

Now, they will run against each other for the first time. Right now, there is no independent candidate, and that’s a remarkable change for Maine. LePage thrived in his last two runs by winning a three-way race, the first time with just 37.6% of the vote. That may play slightly better to Mill’s strengths, who became the third Maine governor in the last fifty years to win over 50% of the vote.

Our Maine Governor Interactive Forecast will be tracking the polling and predicting the result of the election, updated every day with the latest data. Our state forecasts go further than anyone else when it comes to using data to show all aspects of the political battleground, including the latest polling, current fundraising levels, a map showing the partisan lean of each county, approval ratings for every candidate, and a trendline of the state’s shifting politics since 1965.

In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation, and correctly called President Biden’s and Senate Democrats as the favorites to win the election.