Maryland Governor Forecast

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

After serving two terms as Governor, Republican Larry Hogan will be term-limited. Democrats are feeling confident about their chances of retaking the Governor’s Mansion in Annapolis. Their nominee is Wes Moore, an Afghanistan Veteran and Rhodes Scholar who won a remarkable primary victory as a political newcomer, fending off fierce challenges from both Maryland and National political heavyweights, including former State Auditor Peter Franchot and President Obama’s Labor Secretary and former DNC Chair Tom Perez.

Moore will face Republican Daniel Cox, a Trump acolyte who offers a sharp contrast to the more moderate governing style of Larry Hogan. While Cox's approach will fire up the Republican base, his pro-active support of Trump's attempt to overturn the last election could make it much harder for him to win over the cross-party support that any Republican needs to win in deep-blue Maryland.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right and was more accurate than all of its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.