Massachusetts Governor Forecast

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

1. Senate 2022 Election Predictions
2. Biden Approval Rating - Every State
3. House 2022 Election

Massachusetts Republican Governor Charlie Baker defied gravity for eight years despite serving in one of the bluest states in the nation. Year after year, Baker ranked near the top of the list of the nation’s most popular Governors, but his popularity was beginning to decline with Republicans. That raised the prospect of a potential primary loss if Republicans decided to nominate a purist. Charlie Baker opted not to run for a third term, and the GOP nominated Geoff Diehl as his potential successor. That's a choice that they may come to regret.

Diehl’s enthusiastic support for both Donald Trump and his efforts to overturn the last election wooed primary voters to his cause, but it's a poor fit in Massachusetts, where Republicans must win over wide swaths of Democrats and Independents to compete. Democrats have countered by elevating Maura Healey, the state Attorney General. Healey is well positioned to break the state’s bizarre attorney general curse. The last seven times since 1966 an AG has run for the Governorship or Senate, they’ve lost - often in humiliating fashion.

Diehl will have to overcome outstanding odds to pull off an upset, as all indications are that the Massachusetts governor is the most likely governorship in the nation to flip parties. He will have to dominate with Republicans and independents while winning over a fair share of moderate Democrats. Healey has the easier task - keep the Democratic coalition together, and tie Diehl to the national Republican party. If Diehl can differentiate himself as a different kind of Republican, he'll be hard-pressed to win in a state where his party last won more than 40% of the vote in a presidential election in 1988.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right and was more accurate than all of its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.