2024 New Hampshire Governor Race Predictions & Polls
Our Governor Forecast predicts the outcome of the election using a data-driven model that factors in polling, historic trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. Almost everything on the page is interactive and shows how the projection changes depending on which candidates make it to the general election.
Scroll further down the page to read the latest polling for both the general election and primary, and to learn more about New Hampshire's recent political history.
Last election cycle, RacetotheWH led all forecasters in calling the highest percentage of both Governor and Senate races correctly.
Background on the Race
Democrats got a lucky break when popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu opted not to seek a fifth two-year term as Governor. Sununu is an electoral juggernaut that has thrived in an era where the Democrats have otherwise had an advantage in statewide races. In 2022, Democrats won the Senate race and the combined congressional vote by more than 9%, and Sununu still managed to win re-election by more than 15%.
Instead, the New Hampshire Governorship is now one of the nation's top battleground races. At first glance, it would appear Democrats would have a natural edge thanks to their recent victories in national races in NH - but New Hampshirites love to split their ticket, and the GOP has actually retained a slight advantage in state races. They control the Governorship and both the State House and State Senate.
There are two serious Democrat contenders for the Governorship - the first of which is Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. Craig is running on a platform of expanding economic opportunities for New Hampshire families and has championed expanding affordable housing and improving public education. Her opponent in the primary is New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, who has made protecting reproductive rights the cornerstone of her campaign, and argues her experience on the Executive Council will let her enter office with close relationships throughout the state.
In the Republican primary, former Senator Kelly Ayotte is the frontrunner for the nomination and is campaigning on protecting public safety and preventing New Hampshire from becoming more like neighboring Massachusetts. Ayotte is seeking a return to public office after losing one of the closest Senate races of the millennium in 2016 to then-Governor Maggie Hassan. The other serious contender is NH Senate President Chuck Morse. Morse says he will protect the “New Hampshire advantage” by preserving low taxes and has touted his record of working with Governor Sununu to pass legislation that expanded clean drinking water and increased mental health funding.
24 Senate Forecast
Our new Senate Forecast breaks down the chances both parties have of securing a majority in 2024. It will be updated daily from now until the election!
Biden Approval Tracker
Unique to RacetotheWH - we have launched our Presidential Election Polling Average, including a new electoral college map for every matchup that has polling. Updated daily.
More RacetotheWH Interactive Features
24 Presidential Polling - General Election
Track the latest general election polling, featuring Biden v. Trump and DeSantis polling, and an early look at the electoral college.
Democrats seek to flip the GOP’s narrow House majority - and we’re predicting their chances of securing a majority. Explore our projections for every race - which highlights top top races that are most likely to decide the election.
2024 GOP Primary Polling
Our polling average tracks not only the larger field, but how Trump and DeSantis poll in a head to head race. We also have a full list of polling for each state, and a trend line showing how the race has changed over time.
National Senate Predictions
Our new Senate Forecast breaks down the chances both parties have of securing a majority in 2024. It will be updated daily from now until the election!
Biden Approval Tracker
Track Biden’s support in every state of the union, and compare his national numbers to Donald Trump’s.