2024 Washington Governor Race Predictions

Our Governor Forecast predicts the outcome of the election using a data-driven model that factors in polling, historic trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. Almost everything on the page is interactive. Last election cycle, RacetotheWH led all forecasters in calling the highest percentage of both Governor and Senate races correctly.

While Washington supports Democrats by landslide margins in Presidential and Senate races, open Governor races can be much more competitive when they succesfully recruit a strong candidate. Democratic Governor Jay Inslee himself won his first election in 20122 by only 3.1%, before easily cruising to re-election in 2016 and 2020.

After Jay Inslee announced his retirement, Republicans landed one of their best recruits of the 2024 election cycle in moderate former Congressman Dave Reichert - who routinely won his seat even as the very same voters backed Democrats in Presidential elections. Reichert will still have his work cut out for him in the very blue state of Washington against Attorney General Bob Ferguson, who has a record of winning statewide and starts with a meaningful financial advantage.