House 2024 Forecast & Predictions
This is the final House Forecast before the election.
Our House Forecast projects the chance both parties have of winning the majority. It uses data-driven projections to predict the outcome of all 435 races. Every day, it runs 20,000 simulations of the election. In 2022, our forecast called 96.3% of House Races correctly. We came just one seat short of perfectly predicting the total number of seats the GOP would win (we predicted they would win 223 seats, and they finished with 222).
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In 2022, Republicans fell short of their lofty expectations, but they still successfully flipped nine seats in the House, winning enough to secure a majority and the Speaker's gavel. Now, they will have to defend it against Democrats, who have 214 seats after flipping George Santos’s seat in a special election. That’s just four short of the 218 seats they will need to take back control.
The Democratic Party will be targeting many of the 18 Congressional Districts that voted for President Biden in 2020 but went on to vote for a Republican in 2022. The Republican party had a proper red wave localized to California and New York, and they now will have to defend eleven seats that Biden won in those two states alone. The Republican party has its own slew of offensive opportunities spread across the country from Colorado to Michigan and Pennsylvania, and they'll likely need to convert at least some of them to hold onto the House.
Our forecast was tested on over 2,000 Congressional elections held since 2010 to ensure it was as accurate as possible. We worked hard to ensure it had as little bias towards either party as possible. Despite running tests in a decade with two historic polling misses, it only had a 0.13% bias towards Democrats on average when projecting the final margin of victory in each race. For any questions on the House Forecast, email RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips at Logan.Phillips@racetothewh.com.
For much more information on the House races, explore four other additional features: Simulate election night, explore our new interactive House map, track the top ten most competitive races, and follow the latest house polls! We also run a Presidential Forecast and a Senate Forecast.
2024 Presidential Polling
Track the latest general election polling, featuring Biden v. Trump and DeSantis polling, and an early look at the electoral college.
The margin of victory for each Congressional district is projected using Eight primary indicators:
1. The Voting History of Each Congressional District
2. The Incumbent’s Performance in the Last Election
3. Polling
4. Fundraising
5. Political Experience of the Candidates
6. National Environment
7. First Round of Elections (For States with Runoffs)
8. Candidate Quality
In the early stages of the election, before candidates are finalized, and high quality polling and fundraising data are available, it will be informed by the House ratings from the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Looking for the 2022 House Forecast? Click here
RacetotheWH Features
24 Presidential Polling
Track the latest general election polling, featuring Biden v. Trump and DeSantis polling, and an early look at the electoral college.
2024 Senate Forecast
Our new Senate Forecast breaks down the chances both parties have of securing a majority in 2024. It will be updated daily from now until the election!
Click for the Latest Forecast
GOP Polling and Predictions
Explore the latest polling, and our live Now-Cast for the primary.
Click for the Latest Polls
Montana Senate Race
The pathway to a Senate majority goes through Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester is running for re-election.
Click for the Latest Forecast