2022 House Election - Nebraska
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Democrats hope to flip the Nebraska Second, which Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. They'll have to defeat Don Bacon, who has already survived a blue wave in 2018 and Biden's victory in 2020. As Aaron Hernandez wrote for the Nebraska Examiner, Bacon describes himself as a conservative with a record of bipartisan votes. It's not clear whether Bacon's unique strengths as a candidate helped him win his past two elections, or whether he won because he faced Kara Eastman both times - a nonprofit executive that has never won political office before. This time around, Bacon faces a more experienced opponent in former teacher and current State Senator Tony Vargas.
The polling has been wildly inconsistent, with one poll showing Tony Vargas up by 7%, and another showing Bacon leading by 15%. One strong sign for Vargas was the June special election in the NE-1st, where Republican Mike Flood only beat Democrat Patty Brooks by 5% in a district that leans 17% towards Republicans. Despite her impressive finish, Brooks still faces long odds in November, as such extreme overperformances are rarer in regularly timed elections. However, it does suggest that she will make it more competitive than we would have earlier expected. If Democrats are similarly engaged in the neighboring Nebraska 2nd, they could to oust Don Bacon in 2022..
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Senate Forecast
Predictions for the 2022 Senate Election, by one of the nation’s best forecasters. Updated after every poll.
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