2022 House Election - New Mexico
RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives
Republicans are hoping that they can win enough support in 2022 to put the first and third congressional districts into play in New Mexico - a challenging proposition, but one that could be possible since they both lean only about 8% towards Democrats. However, the most vulnerable incumbent is probably Republican Yvette Herrell, who lost by just 3,500 votes in 2018, but successfully won the seat on her second try in 2020. Herrell raised eyebrows when she voted to dismiss the decision by voters in Arizona and Pennsylvania after the January 6th riot, in part because she was one of the only Republicans in a competitive seat to make such a decision. In the new congressional maps, Herrell’s district now leans 4% towards Democrats.
RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right, and outperformed almost all its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.
RacetotheWH is already forecasting the entire 2021-2022 Gubernation Cycle. Click here for the national picture.
Senate Forecast
Predictions for the 2022 Senate Election, by one of the nation’s best forecasters. Updated after every poll.
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