2022 House Elections - New York

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Democrats tried to lock down a decisive advantage in the New York Congressional Maps, but the New York State Court of Appeals struck it down for violating the state’s constitutional ban on gerrymandering. The new map makes New York one of the most important political battlegrounds of the 2022 Congressional Elections, featuring the most competitive races of any state short of California.

The parties will fiercely compete for the three open seats in Long Island, all of which could conceivably be won by either party (the NY 1st, 3rd, and 4th). If Democrats overperform in 2022, they could be competitive in the one Long Island district with an incumbent (NY-2nd), where Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R) is running for re-election against Jackie Gordon (D). New York City features mostly safe seats, excluding the NY-11th, where former Congressman Max Rose (D) is the underdog as he challenges Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R) for his former seat in Staten Island.

Just north of NYC, New York Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney (D) opted to leave his old seat for the neighboring NY-17th, which is a bit more friendly for Democrats. He’ll be the clear favorite but could face trouble if Republicans successfully win the House in a red wave. Veteran Pat Ryan (D) successfully won a landmark victory against all-star recruit Marcus Molinaro in the August special Congressional election, and will have to win again to secure a full term, this time on relatively more friendly turf in the NY-18th.

Molinaro will give it another try in the NY-19th against Democrat Josh Riley in a race that is now one of the nation’s most competitive this cycle. In Central New York and the Mohawk Valley, Democrats' chances of flipping the NY-22nd rose after moderate Republican Rep. John Katko decided to retire. President Biden won the district by 7.4%.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right and outperformed almost all its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.