2022 House Election - Tennessee

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Republicans rule the roost in Tennessee, which our election data finds is the 11th most Republican state in the nation. Nonetheless, in the last decade, Democrats had successfully won two of the state’s nine congressional districts, one in Memphis and one in Nashville. The state Republican party decided to give themselves some “extracurricular” help by cannibalizing Democratic Rep Jim Cooper’s Nashville district, sharing pieces of the voters in deep red districts. The closet district left to the old one is the TN-4, which leans 17% towards Republicans, down from Cooper’s D +14% district. That’s going to make it very hard for Democrats to win, but it’s still the most competitive seat left in the state.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right and outperformed almost all its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.