Live Forecast - 2024 Presidential Election
Forecast and Graphics Designed by: Logan Phillips
Follow our live predictions for the White House on election night and in the days afterward until every state has been called. Our RacetotheWH forecast serves as a baseline, which we adjust after each race is declared. We use races where the vote has already been counted to project the national environment, influencing our predictions across all other races. We also factor in exit polling and the NYT needle.
This live forecast is more experimental than our regular election forecast, which has been thoroughly tested on decades of past elections. Nevertheless, it should offer valuable insights into the election’s trajectory as we await final results. For the final Election Day RacetotheWH Presidential Forecast, click here.
Track Record: Since RacetotheWH launched in 2020, it has had one of the strongest track records of any forecaster. In 2022, we came one race short of calling the exact number of House seats the GOP would win in the midterms. An independent review found our probabilities for House and Senate races were the most accurate of any forecaster.
24 Senate Forecast
Our new Senate Forecast breaks down the chances both parties have of securing a majority in 2024. It will be updated daily from now until the election.
More Interactive Features
The House Forecast projects the outcome of all 435 races around the country, and identifies the key races most likely to decide the majority.
Our Senate Forecast breaks down the chances both parties have of securing a majority in 2024. It will be updated daily from now until the election!
Track the latest polling for the Presidential Election in every state. Includes an interactive polling-based electoral college.