Shift the Electoral College - Explore How a Shift in the National Polls Could Change the Map

What would happen if Harris or Trump surges before election day? In this feature, you can explore how the map changes if one candidate gains a certain percentage point across the board. This is a great way to see how close the candidate polling behind in the swing states is to mounting a comeback - or how much the polls need to miss in their favor for them to win.

Keep in mind that while gains in the national polling are clearly correlated with gains in each state, in the actual election, gains will not be equally distributed in each state. For example, a candidate that makes huge gains with Latino voters won’t see much of a boost in New Hampshire, but they may make particularly strong gains in Arizona and Nevada.

Shift the Polling Map uses the RacetotheWH 2024 Presidential Polling Average for its baseline, which is updated every day with the latest polls. On July 30th, we adjusted this feature for the new general election matchup between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.