The 2024 Senate Forecast
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The RacetotheWH Senate Forecast predicts the outcome of every Senate race in 2024 using a data-driven model that factors in the latest polling, historic trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. Every day, we simulate the election 50,000 times a day to determine how likely each party is to win a majority.
RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and correctly anticipated that Democrats would win both the Senate and White House as early as May. In 2022, we came just one seat shy in both the Senate and the House of perfectly predicting both party's seat total - which was closer than any election forecaster that cycle.
Background on the 2024 Senate Race
Republicans are on the hunt for the Senate majority in 2024 - and they'll have no shortage of seats to target. Democrats will be defending 23 of the 34 Senate seats that are holding elections in 2024. One of those seats, West Virginia, is almost certain to flip to Republicans after Senator Joe Manchin announced his retirement.
Democrats have a fighting shot at keeping their majority despite a historically challenging map, because of Senator John Fetterman's victory in Pennsylvania, which swelled their majority to 51 seats. As a result, Democrats can afford to lose on Senate race in 2024, provided that President Joe Biden holds the White House and with it the Vice President's tie-breaking vote, which decides the majority in there is a 50-50 split. Otherwise, Republicans would need only one seat to flip the chamber.
Two of Republicans' top targets are Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and Montana Senator Jon Tester, who both represent red states. They'll have to once again outperform the rest of their party by wide margins to secure another term. Democrats will also need to defend Arizona and Michigan, along with Nevada, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin. Democrats have two offensive opportunities of their own - Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Rick Scott. If they can flip one, they could survive losing another seat and still keep their majority.
After exploring our National Senate Forecast, you can learn more about the most important Senate races, which include dedicated full-page interactive forecast that will be updated daily until the election: Florida Michigan Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Nevada Texas + California Primary
2024 Senate Polling
The latest polling for every Senate race up in 2024. This year, we are also tracking primary polls and favorability polls for every candidate
2024 Presidential Election
Unique to RacetotheWH - we have launched our Presidential Election Polling Average, including a new electoral college map for every matchup that has polling. Updated daily.
Other RacetothewH Forecast
House Forecast
24 Presidential Polling
Track the latest general election polling, featuring Biden v. Trump and DeSantis polling, and an early look at the electoral college.
Can Democrats Beat Ted Cruz in Texas?
Six years after a surprisingly close election against Beto O’Rourke, Ted Cruz is running for re-election. Rising Democratic star and former NFL player Colin Allred will seek to vanquish Cruz in 2024.
Montana Senate Predictions
The Senate Majority could be decided by Montanans, who will choose whether to send Jon Tester, the Senator-Rancher, back to Washington DC for another term. It’s the focus of our first full-page individualized interactive Senate Forecast.
GOP Primary Polling
We’re tracking the latest GOP primary polls in ever state - including polls showing Trump v. DeSantis head to head.
Biden Approval Tracker
Track Biden’s support in every state of the union, and compare his national numbers to Donald Trump’s.
Senate Polling
We’re tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Senate Race, now including primary poll and favorability ratings.