California Senate Primary Predictions & Polls

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The California Senate Primary is one of the most hotly contested primaries in the nation, with many of the Golden State’s brightest political stars seeking their chance at a once-in-a-generation opportunity to secure a spot in the Senate. This is only the second time since 1992 that the nation's biggest state has had an open Senate seat

Our California Senate coverage includes the latest primary and general election polling, updated daily. We go far deeper than the top-line numbers: we're tracking how the candidates are polling with key groups across the state, including by race, gender, and party.

We also project the result of the race, using our Senate Primary Forecast, which the last cycle called all 20 senate primaries we predicted correctly. However, it would be wise to have a healthy dose of skepticism while using the forecast to follow the race because primaries are inherently hard to predict, and voters often change their minds in the final days of the campaign.

California primaries are run differently than most states. Every candidate of every party runs on the same ballot. The top two candidates regardless of party will face off again in the November general election.

In 2022, RacetotheWH led the nation in calling the highest percentage of Senate and Governor races correctly of any election forecaster. We came within one seat of predicting the exact number of seats that Democrats and Republicans would win in the House. We’re now forecasting the 24 Senate Election.

While the odds are high that a Democrat will ultimately win the seat - it remains an open question of whether two Democrats make it to the general election, or whether former MLB star Republican Steve Garvey can consolidate enough GOP support to slip into the general election. In addition to Garvey, there are three other candidates with significant support, and all of them are Democratic Congressional Members. House Members running who are real threats are the clear early frontrunners for the runoff. Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee, and Katie Porter.
Congressman Schiff was the lead prosecutor in former President Donald Trump's first impeachment trial. He starts with a significant financial edge.
Congresswoman Barbara Lee rose to prominence as one of the foremost critics of the Iraq war, insisting that the US do more to ensure Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before invading. She would be the third black woman Senator in history.
Congresswoman Katie Porter is a progressive stalwart and former law professor from Orange County. She became a national figure after going viral on multiple occasions for her sharp questions of bank executives and Trump cabinet officials in Congressional hearings.