The 2024 Senate Forecast

Designed by Logan Phillips

Track our live predictions for the Senate on election night, and in the days after until every Senate race has been called. We use our RacetotheWH forecast as a baseline, and then adjust the forecast after each race has been called. We use races where the vote has already been counted to projected the national environment, which affects our predictions in every other race. We also take into account exit polling and the NYT needle.

This live forecast is more experimental then our regular election forecast that we’ve been running, which was tested robustly on decades of past elections. However, it should provide a useful window into the shape of the election as we wait for the final results. For the final Election day RacetotheWH Senate Forecast, click here.