Florida Senate Forecast & Polls

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Marco Rubio was one of the GOP’s fastest rising stars in 2016, when he was aiming squarely on becoming the GOP’s nominee for the Presidency. When that fell short, he changed lanes at the last second to run for Senate, and easily won re-election against Congressman Patrick Murphy, pulling ahead by just under 8%. Since 2016, Republicans have made major strides in Florida, with a stunningly strong showing in Miami in the 2020 election. That increases the odds that Rubio will be able to win another term.

Rubio will be facing a stronger opponent this election cycle in Congresswoman Val Demings, the strong frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Demings is a former police chief that Biden seriously considered naming his Vice President. She’s demonstrating an excellent ability to rally the Democratic base. In 2021, she raised more money than any other challenger running for the Senate, and was the sixth best overall, coming just a few million behind Marco Rubio despite raising money for a considerably smaller amount of time.

The Florida Interactive Senate forecast shows the latest polling and projections for the race, updated daily. It also breaks down the race in detail, including interactive maps showcasing the Florida political landscape, approval ratings for both candidates, and the latest fundraising.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right, and was more accurate than all of its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.