Utah Senate Forecast & Polls

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Utah is one of the most conservative states in the nation, but a significant number of Republicans were repelled by Donald Trump’s style of politics and opted in 2016 to vote for independent conservative Evan McMullin, leaving Trump with just 45% of the vote. McMullin finished with 21.5% of the Utah vote, right behind Hillary Clinton. Now, McMullin is challenging Republican Senator Mike Lee, arguing that Lee has made partisan dysfunction in Washington worse. McMullin will have to carve out a unique coalition of moderate Republicans, independents, and Democrats to be able to win the election. For Utah specifically, our model will be more reliant on polling and fundraising than partisan lean, because it's unclear how Utah voters will view the choice between McMullin and Lee.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right and was more accurate than all of its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.