Wisconsin Senate Forecast & Polls

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Track the latest polling in Wisconsin in our interactive forecast, which also projects how likely each party is to win the race. Switch between our overall prediction, and four different potential general election matchups. Scroll down to read our political analysis of the political landscape of Wisconsin, and to explore interactive maps. Our Senate forecast was one of the most accurate in the nation in 2020.

Preview of the Race:

Ron Johnson may be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent running for re-election in 2022, but Democrats underestimate him at their peril. History has shown Johnson is a wily opponent who consistently confounds expectations. Even Republicans have made the same mistake. The GOP cut off his funding in the closing weeks of 2016 because they believed he was heading straight for defeat and that his campaign was unsalvageable. He pulled off a surprising victory, showing even the GOP’s internal pollsters were flummoxed by the polling errors of the 2016 election.

That doesn’t mean Johnson is invulnerable by any stretch, and he might have provided Democrats with an opening by abandoning the tactics that helped him secure victory in the past. Johnson ran as a businessman above the political fray, running advertisements that highlighted his successes at working with Democrats to deliver meaningful gains for the people of Wisconsin. Over the last six years, however, Ron Johnson has enthusiastically donned the mantle of the partisan warrior, and now has a much more toxic relationship with his colleagues on the other side of the aisle. Some of his more extreme comments about covid-19 and the 2020 election have received considerable press coverage in Wisconsin, and undercut the image he so carefully built in past elections.

The Democratic primary featured a showdown of rising stars in the party, which will almost certainly be won by Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, after the other top contenders dropped out of the race to endorse his candidacy. Barnes could be the first Black Senator in state history.