Virginia Forecast & Polls

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Former Democratic Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe is running to become Governor again against first-time candidate Republican Glenn Youngkin. Republicans are hoping to claw their way back to victory after a long stretch of losses in statewide elections, a remarkable turn of events for a state that voted for the Republican Presidential candidate in all but one election from 1952 to 2004. Virginia became a swing state long before Donald Trump came onto the political scene, but his presidency greatly accelerated its shift towards Democrats.

Now, Glenn Youngkin will likely need to convince at least some of the skeptical suburban voters that have left the party that he is a different kind of Republican. Republicans are hopeful that Virginians will continue their long history of voting against the current President. From the Carter administration forward, every Governor but one elected in Virginia has been from the party out of the White House. Unfortunately for the Youngkin campaign, the one exception was Terry McAuliffe in 2014.

Our Virginia Governor Forecast projects the result of the election using a combination of polling, Virginia’s political lean, fundraising, approval ratings, the experience level of both candidates, and the current national political environment. It’s been tested on every Governor election in the last thirty years to make it as accurate as possible, and it’s updated after every new poll. RacetotheWH also features a Senate Forecast for 2022 that is simulated 50,000 times a day, and it was one of the most accurate in the nation in 2020.

Update - this is the final version of the Forecast. Glenn Youngkin went on to win Virginia. Here are the key lessons Democrats can learn from a tough 2021 election day.

What does this mean for 2022? First, before we can tell, we need to see how bad of a day it was for Democrats. Virginia is just one state. Did they also underperform in New Jersey, and in other races around the country? Second, this could be a low moment for Democrats that they recover from, or a sign of things to come. Part of why Terry won last time was that Republicans were at a low point in 2013. Less than a month before the election, Republicans shut down the government to try to get Obama to get rid of the ACA. That was mission impossible, and it was seen as irresponsible, and voters punished Republicans in Virginia for it. The environment changed significantly by 2014.

The party out of power tends to gain ground, so this is not a perfect analogy. But there are a few ways this can change. If America moves more firmly beyond Covid-19 and gets Biden's agenda passed, they could gain. Democrats will likely be able to focus the public's attention more on the differences between themselves and Republicans, instead of differences within their party.

In other words, today is a good sign for Republicans, but it is premature to spike the football. A lot of people will anyway. Ignore the noise. Elections aren't simple, and we have a long time for things to change in either direction