Republicans dominated Arizona for over 60 years, but the Grand Canyon State is now fiercely contested.
Photo Credit: None, Public Domain
By: Logan Phillips
Date: October 12th
Arizona used to be the archetype of a ruby-red Republican state. In the last seventeen presidential elections, Democrats have won it only once. However, the days of near-automatic Republican victories in the Grand Canyon state are long gone, and Arizona is now one of the nation's most fiercely contested political battlegrounds.
The dramatic transformation is the result of decades-long demographic shifts that have been supercharged by the political disruption of the Donald Trump era. In recent years, there has been a significant number of Americans from outside Arizona that moved into Phoenix, making it one of the fastest-growing cities in America. These hundreds of thousands of new Arizonans lean strongly towards the Democratic party.
Moreover, Arizona used to be an overwhelmingly white state, but it has rapidly diversified after decades of immigration. At one point, Arizona’s oldest generation was one of the nation’s whitest, while its youngest was one of the most diverse. This tension was one of the primary drivers that led former Republican Governor Jan Brewer to adopt some of the nation’s most extreme anti-immigrant policies, laws that the ACLU believes encourage racial profiling of Latinos.
The worst offender by far was Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who committed gross human rights abuses against undocumented immigrants in his prisons. The courts repeatedly ruled that he was acting unlawfully and violating their constitutional rights. Additionally, he proudly and openly targeted Latinos with racial profiling, which again led to a court order demanding he cease and desist the practice. He refused and was tried and convicted for violating a direct court order. The only thing that prevented Arpaio from serving time in jail for his crimes was a pardon by Donald Trump.
It is hardly surprising that, after the actions of Donald Trump, Governor Jan Brewer, and Joe Arpaio, few Latinos in Arizona feel welcomed within the ranks of the Republican party. A New York Times poll found that Latinos planned to support Joe Biden over Donald Trump 65% to 27%.
The final trend that has made Arizona so much more competitive is the political transformation of America's suburbs. They used to be the central political battleground of American politics, but across the nation, suburban voters have shifted decisively in favor of Democrats in the Donald Trump era. Time will only tell if this trend endures, but in Arizona, the change looms quite large, as most residents live in urban or suburban communities.
These changes have positioned both Joe Biden and Democrat Senator candidate Mark Kelly as the favorites to win in Arizona. Mark Kelly, a former Astronaut who served on the international space station, leads Incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally by almost eight percent. The Presidential race is a bit closer: Joe Biden leads Trump by just over three and a half points.
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