Biden ahead in Wisconsin, after Trump overplayed his hand in Kenosha
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)
By: Logan Phillips
Date: October 12th
Of all the upset victories Donald Trump had in 2016, Wisconsin was probably the most stunning. The polls showed Hillary Clinton leading by 5.4% on election day, but Donald Trump squeaked ahead by just over 20,000 votes.
Entering 2020, Republicans felt confident in their chances of retaining Wisconsin in 2020, especially after Democrats only barely won the Governorship in the midst of a historic blue wave. However, in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, Joe Biden built and retained a sturdy lead that held for the entirety of the summer.
Donald Trump tried to flip the script by taking advantage of spurts of riots and violence in Kenosha that happened after local police in Kenosha killed an unarmed black man, Jacob Blake. While most of the protests were peaceful, the minority that turned violent dominated the screens of Fox News viewers for weeks on end.
Tensions reached a fever pitch after a 17-year-old Trump supporter, drove from out of state to Kenosha with his long rifle to “protect small businesses”. Instead, Wisconsin prosecutors argue, cell phone footage showed a protestor threw a plastic bag at Rittenhouse, and he responded in a panic by shooting two protestors dead.
Donald Trump claimed that there was a direct line between the chaos in Kenosha and the Democratic party’s support for criminal justice reform . He launched ads across Wisconsin that weren’t exactly high on subtlety. They claimed that it was Joe Biden who was responsible for burning buildings and violence in the streets.
The ads were just the beginning. The riots got central billing during the Republican Convention, as speaker after speaker used apocalyptic rhetoric to suggest that the violence would explode across America if Joe Biden won the election. In our coverage of the convention, I argued that this was a poor tactical choice:
“The violence is ratcheting up at the same time the rhetoric is becoming more extreme, and Trump might look more like the arsonist gleefully pouring gasoline on the political pyre then the fireman quenching the flames. If this becomes the primary narrative – and there are already signs it’s starting to take root, then this issue could make things worse for the Trump campaign.”
This is exactly what happened as Donald Trump traveled down to Kenosha. He was explicitly asked by reporters to condemn violence from his supporters, particularly Kyle Rittenhouse’s killing of protestors. Donald Trump refused - and defended Rittenhouse. Wisconsinites felt that Trump’s heated rhetoric was only adding more fuel to the chaos. Marquette University, a top pollster that has shown more favorable results for Trump in Wisconsin than most in 2020, found that voters disapproved of his handling of the protest 54% to 37%.
In stark contrast, Joe Biden visited Kenosha the day after Trump, and clearly and unconditionally condemned violence from anyone - Democrat or Republican - while still standing by police reforms taking on the epidemic of shootings of unarmed black men and women by the police. When the dust cleared in early September, Biden’s lead has swelled to 7.8%.
He’s maintained a similar lead ever since. In fact, it’s entirely possible things might be taking a turn for the worst for team Trump once again in Wisconsin, although we will need more polling data to be confident either way. A New York Times poll released yesterday showed Biden up by ten percent. The cause might be the coronavirus, which has infected more people in Wisconsin than any state in the Union in recent days.
The timing is not ideal for Trump, whose handling of the virus is getting renewed scrutiny after his infection. In the same Times poll, 62% of Wisconsin voters thought he got the virus because he didn’t take adequate precautions.
We’ll see in the coming weeks if this further erodes his position. Nonetheless, it goes without saying that Democrats should be wary of taking the state for granted in the aftermath of 2016, even though Joe Biden’s position is stronger than Clinton’s four years ago.
For the latest predictions and polling in the key swing states, check out our Battleground States Interactive, and look at the Presidential Forecast for the overall national picture
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