The Senator that Brought Down the Terrorist Behind the Birmingham Bombing
Photo Credit: United States House of Representatives - Office of Doug Jones / Public domain
Democrat Doug Jones stunning upset over Roy Moore in 2017 was one of the most consequential moments in Alabama politics in recent memory, but it was not Jones’ first rendezvous with history. Almost twenty years earlier, he set out to correct a grand miscarriage of justice that had been perpetrated by one of America’s most powerful men – an act that let four cold blooded killers go free after committing one of the most disgraceful crimes of their era.
The 16th Street Baptist church was one of the beating hearts of the Civil Rights Movement in Birmingham, Alabama, serving as an organizational headquarters for the effort to tear down Jim Crow. A local Klu Klux Klan was clearly intimidated by the growing power of the Movement and tried to terrify activist out of challenging the systemic racism of the status quo. On the Sunday morning of September 15th, 1963, five black girls were playing in the church’s basement when the bomb planted by the Klansmen went off. 12-year-old Sarah Rudolph lost an eye but made it out alive. Her older sister and three friends did not, and died from the explosion.
It was one of the most heinous terrorist attacks of the 20th century. In the eulogy he delivered for the four children, Martin Luther King called it "one of the most vicious and tragic crimes ever perpetrated against humanity." It was a catalyzing moment in the Civil Rights movement, and a precursor to the March on Selma and the Voting Rights Act that would forever change America.
With the national spotlight firmly on the Birmingham Bombing, the FBI opened an investigation that pulled out all the stops – at least at first. They collected over 9,000 files of evidence, wiretapped the prime suspects phones, and even got one of them confessing on tape. However, the killers went uncharged due to the direct interference of infamous FBI Director, J. Edgar Hoover. Hoover loathed Dr. King, opposed the Civil Rights Movement, and had tried for years to link its leaders to the communist party. Arguably, at the time, Hoover held more power than anyone but the President himself.
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Like so many Black families across the Jim Crow South that had been victims of white supremacy, the families of those children were left without any sense of justice, even in the aftermath of a horror that had captured the nation’s attention. It wasn’t until 1978 that the first rays of justice began to crack through.
Future Senator Doug Jones was there to witness it all. He was only twenty-three years old, and in his second year of law school, when Alabama Attorney General William Joseph Baxley brought charges against Robert Chambliss, the suspected mastermind of the bombing. Jones was enthralled and eager to see justice done, hanging on to every word of that trial. He even skipped classes to not miss the proceedings
Chambliss was found guilty, and would spend the rest of his life in jail. However, it was abundantly clear to Jones that Chambliss did not act alone, and that the other conspirators remained free of any consequence for their grievous crimes. Twenty years later, Jones was the best positioned man in America to change that.
President Bill Clinton appointed him to be the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, and he quickly made the case his top priority. He urged the FBI to release all of the 9,000 files, which included a confession from Joe Blanton to his wife about how he created the bomb. Jones worked with the FBI to develop enough evidence to prosecute the second prime suspect, Bobby Frank Cherry, and built a strong case, including testimony from his former wife, and their friends from the time of the attack.
Jones successfully charged and convicted both Jack Cherry and Joe Blanton – for lifetime sentences. Jones still believes it’s the most important thing he’s ever done in his life. It was 38 years delayed, but he was able to find justice for the four black girls, all killed before their fifteenth birthday.
Doug Jones’ Long Shot Bid for the Senate
At the conclusion of the Clinton Administration, Jones left public life and returned to private practice as a lawyer. After Jeff Sessions was appointed Attorney General by Donald Trump, Doug Jones announced his intentions to run for what could be charitably called a long shot bid. Alabama was so red that no Democrat even ran against Sessions in 2014. In 2008, a Democratic wave election, Sessions beat his opponent by almost 30%.
However, there was a chance, a small chance, that Jones could prevail. Roy Moore, a hard core religious conservative, and political lightning rod, won the Republican nomination. He had been elected twice to be Chief Justice in Alabama and removed twice from office by the Alabama Court of the Judiciary for refusing to follow rulings made by the Federal Courts. Moore maintained a string of extreme positions that were wildly out of touch, including that 9/11 might have been a punishment “because we’ve distanced ourselves from God”.
Jones campaigned on a platform of uniting Alabama behind a common set of values and decency, promising he would refrain from the partisan obsessions of modern politics and look instead to forge consensus. Internal polls showed his message was breaking through, and he was up by 1%.
Then, the race burst open after the Washington Post reported allegations that Moore had sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl. It soon spun out of control as a total of eight women accused Roy Moore of inappropriate sexual behavior. There were also contemporary witnesses, and Roy Moore was banned from a mall for being creepy around underaged girls.
Jones would go on to win a remarkable victory, winning the votes of a coalition of African Americans, (particularly black women who came out in historic numbers), and a significant portion of Republicans from three groups: the suburbs, the college educated, and the young.
In 2020, Jones is the Democrat’s Most Endangered Incumbent
As Senator, Jones has had a refreshing tendency to eschew the traditional philosophy of Congress, where getting re-elected is both the primary and secondary objective. He’s voted his conscience even when it was guaranteed to hurt him back home. Most notably, that included voting against Kavanaugh and voting for impeachment, both of which caused declines in Jones’ approval rating with Alabamans. Nonetheless, he effectively worked as a bipartisan Senator willing to partner with Republicans.
In 2020, it’s going to be a lot harder for Jones to prevail then it was in 2018. He’s going to need to rebuild much of his coalition, with potential room for growth among senior white voters – some of which are drifting are drifting away from Republicans due to frustration with the Trump administration’s response to the Coronavirus. His opponent, Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville, is fully wrapping himself in the flag of Donald Trump, who is quite popular in Alabama. The more nationalized the race is, the less likely Jones is going to be able to get traction in this race.
Photo Credit: GoIowaState.com / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)
However, don’t write off Jones chances completely. Joe Trippi, an elite political strategist who is working on Jones campaign, claimed last week on the Hacks on Tap podcast that Jones needs about 31-33% of the white vote to win the seat, and claims that he’s not far behind. In fact, Trippi claims that internal polls have Jones trailing by just 2% behind Tuberville.
We should have a healthy dose of skepticism, because Jones was trailed by 12% in the polling average, when the last poll was published on August 4th. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see Jones narrow his deficit. Tuberville has seriously lagged Jones in fundraising, which has allowed the Senator to dominate the airwaves. Jones outspent Tuberville by 400% on TV ads, and by 900% on Facebook ads.
Trippi says that there are two types of Trump voters in Alabama, which will almost certainly cast its 9 electoral voters for the President. One is completely on board with the Trump Presidency, but the other has some serious angst about their support. They’ll still vote for the President, but they want his power to be checked, and they’re open to voting for a Democrat.
The other lifeline for Jones is that Tommy Tuberville is a first-time candidate, and it has certainly shown in this campaign. Asked how he would handle the COVID-19 pandemic, Tuberville said, “I wouldn’t have a clue”. He also has been over the top with his attacks on Jones in a way that can undercut his own credibility, claiming that Jones is a communist and a socialist. Negative attack ads can work, but when they’re that hyperbolic, voters are less likely to take the claims seriously.
Nonetheless, odds are still certainly in Tuberville’s favor. Right now, we have Doug Jones winning 11% of the time. However, if we were to get new polls affirming Joe Trippi’s claim that Jones is down by only two percent, then his chances would triple to about 34%. That’s just under the mark that we use to classify a race as a tossup.
The Current State of the Race:
Chance of Winning: Tuberville (R) %, Jones (D) 11%
Polling: Tuberville +12%
Net Approval Rating: Tuberville +9%, Jones -18%
Fundraising: Jones +$8.8 Million
Partisan Lean of Alabama: +28.1% Republican
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