Battle for the House Could be Decided in the New York Elections

President

Aug 15

By: Logan Phillips

Date: August 15th

Democrats tried to lock down a decisive advantage in the New York Congressional Maps, but the New York State Court of Appeals struck it down for violating the state’s constitutional ban on gerrymandering. The new map makes the state one of the most important political battlegrounds of the 2022 Congressional Elections, with more house races in play than any state short of California. We’re launching our new interactive predictions for the NY House Race, which are posted both in this article (on the bottom of the page for mobile), and in it’s permanent home here.

The parties will fiercely compete for the three open seats in Long Island, all of which could conceivably be won by either party (the NY 1st, 3rd, and 4th). If Democrats overperform in 2022, they could be competitive in the one Long Island district with an incumbent (NY-2nd), where Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R) is running for re-election. New York City features mostly safe seats, excluding the NY-11th, where former Congressman Max Rose is the underdog as he challenges Rep. Nicole Malliotakis for his former seat in State Island.

Marcus Molinaro, Photo Credit: Theodore Stephan

Just north of NYC, New York Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney opted to leave his old seat for the neighboring NY-17th, which is a bit more friendly for Democrats. He’ll be the clear favorite but could face trouble if Republicans successfully win the House in a red wave. Maloney’s old district, the NY-18th, is now one of the nation’s most competitive races this cycle. In the Southern Tier, polling shows that former GOP Governor nominee Marcus Molinaro is lightly favored to beat lawyer Josh Riley in a special election on August 23rd in a district that favors Republicans by 1% relative to the popular vote. Both will be running a second time in November.

In Central New York and the Mohawk Valley, Democrats chances of flipping the NY-22nd rose after moderate Republican Rep. John Katko decided to retire. President Biden won the district by 7.4%. Donald Trump won the NY-23rd in Western NY by 17% in 2020, but it could be in play if Republicans nominate Carl Paldino. Paladino has a long history of extreme views, including describing Adolf Hitler as “the kind of leader we need today. We need somebody inspirational. We need somebody that is a doer.” Paladino underperformed Congressional Republican by 17% when lost the Governorship to Andrew Cuomo in 2010, and he’d likely do similarly in his House bid, although it’s Republican enough that he would still be favored. If they instead nominate GOP Chair Nick Langworthy, it’s a Safe R seat.

Finally, there are a series of high-profile Democratic primaries on Tuesday, August 23rd. We have successfully called over 95% of primaries correctly for the Senate and Governorship, and for the first time, we are taking a crack at three primaries in New York. Keep in mind this is very experimental, as this is essentially using our Senate primary forecast without optimizing it for House Races, nor testing its accuracy on past cycles.

The New York 10th District is stacked with rising stars in the NY Democratic Primary. We think outsider and Attorney Dan Goldman is the favorite (as of 8/15), and he’s been further boosted by the New York Times endorsement. However, at the same time, an upset is more likely than not because the race is so close. We think he has a 35% chance of winning. Yuh-Line Niou has a 20% chance, and Caroline Rivera has a 19% chance. Congressman Mondaire Jones has a 14% chance of being the nominee. Former Congresswoman Holtzman has a 10% chance, followed by Jo Anne Simon with a 2% chance.

Jerry Naddler, Photo Credit: Wikipedia Commons

The New York 12th features a highly competitive race between two Representatives, Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney that have been forced to compete against each other thanks to redistricting. While they are the clear frontrunners, another candidate to watch is Ashmi Seth, a first-generation American who worked for the Federal Reserve. She’s taken a novel approach to developing her campaign’s platform. It's the product of the volunteer work of over a thousand of her potential constituents, with individuals working on the issues they have expertise/personal experience. While she faces challenging odds on election day, a strong performance could bode well for Seth's future in the district, as she is in her late 20s, while Nadler and Maloney are both in their mid-70s. We think Nadler has broken past Maloney to become the favorite, with a 66% chance of winning, compared to Maloney’s 32% chance. Sheth and Attorney Suraj Patel have a roughly 1% chance each. We project Nadler will get 45% of the vote to Maloney’s 35%.

Finally, Sean Patrick Maloney was able to pressure Congressman Mondaire Jones to leave his district, the NY-17th to escape a more competitive race in his NY-18th. He’s the heavy favorite to beat progressive State Senator Alessandria Biaggi, with a 92% chance of victory. We expect him to win 70% of the vote to Biaggi’s 30%.

RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right and outperformed almost all its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.