Mark Kelly is Rocketing Ahead of Martha McSally
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)
By: Sonia Aviv
Date: June 28th, 2020
There’s something happening in Arizona - a state slowly revealing that it may paint its Senate seats an opaque blue for the first time in 70 years. Former astronaut and Democratic candidate, Mark Kelly, has burst past GOP Incumbent Senator Martha McSally, polling ten points ahead of her in a race that was supposed to be one of the marquee matchups of 2020. What makes this race particularly provocative is that the state’s support for Biden doesn’t match, with the former VP polling 5% ahead of Trump. If the Presidential race gets closer, we could potentially see an Arizona that elects Trump and a second democratic Senator in November. This discrepancy in support leaves many wondering - what’s so special about Mark Kelly?
Kelly has an undoubtedly compelling story. A former astronaut and Navy Veteran, Kelly is the husband of Gabby Giffords, the Arizona representative who suffered a serious brain injury after surviving an assassination attempt in 2011. The couple are prominent gun-safety activists and have their personal story to advocate with. In Kelly’s announcement ad, “My Next Mission,” a well-recovered Giffords sits beside him. The ad’s overall sentiment is both persuasive and inspiring, portraying Kelly as a data-driven and logical decision-maker (from his NASA background) and an equally devoted and supportive husband. Viewers are left with the warm and fuzzies - from the ad, it’s difficult to argue that his qualifications and sacrifice, both for his wife and country, are not robust enough to fight for Arizona.
Mark Kelly announces his campaign for the U.S. Senate in Arizona with one of the best campaign ads of the cycle
The fundraising success seen by Kelly’s team is particularly impressive, as he leads all senatorial candidates on dollars raised from individual donors - primarily on the strength of small dollar donations. However, Kelly has had to thwart two prominent attacks - one claiming his willingness to support Bernie Sanders and another more recent one illuminating his corporate ties to China. Kelly’s former company, World View Enterprises, apparently had investment ties with a Chinese company, Tencent. Kelly has relinquished his position at World View since announcing his Senate run, and his campaign has clarified that he views China as an adversary. Still, his opponents have been quick to use this as ammunition against him.
While Kelly’s background is definitely unique, McSally’s story is equally compelling. She was the first female fighter pilot to fly in combat, and details accounts of battling sexism in her book, Dare to Fly: Simple Lessons in Never Giving Up. McSally was appointed to her current Senate seat by Governor Doug Ducey upon the death of John McCain. In 2018, she ran and was defeated in the election by Democrat Krysten Sinema by a narrow loss of 56,000 votes. Reactions to her appointment fell along partisan lines, with some expressing the close race granted her the position, while others branding her a flop that the state had already rejected once, and would unseat at the first opportunity.
It’s an interesting discrepancy, because McSally’s background and ideological positions would normally fit the state relatively well. She is a former member of the US House of Representatives and a fairly mainstream conservative in a state that has been represented by two GOP senators for 20+ years, until 2018. However, the state that once gave America ultra-conservative Barry Goldwater has been shifting towards the center in recent years, driven by the growing Latino population and the shift of suburban white women towards the Democratic party.
It’s possible that McSally’s unwavering support of President Trump has harmed her reception among Arizona voters. John McCain, her predecessor, held his seat for over 30 years and saw surging approval rates after he voted against a Senate bill in 2017 to repeal the ACA, and continued speaking truth to Trump’s power. With Trump continually snubbing McCain until and even after his death, and McSally rarely speaking of the state’s treasured figure, voters may be put off by her perceived flippancy. The Lincoln project, a Republican PAC founded by George Conway and others to prevent Trump’s 2020 reelection, ran an attack ad campaign against McSally, labeling her a “Trump Hack.”
Kelly is inspiring some crossover support in an era where that rarely happens anymore - winning 10% of 2016 Trump voters in a recent New York Times poll. In a sense, Kelly is the perfect candidate - he has a noble past while also possessing qualities that leave conservatives feeling comfortable (service background, family values etc). McSally’s aggressive attack approach toward Kelly may be driving her favorability ratings into the ground. It’s possible that if McSally pivoted to a more atypical approach, perhaps using positive messaging highlighting their different platforms, rather than attempting to disgrace Kelly, she could win over voters. Kelly’s background leaves him difficult to shame, a practice Arizona voters, no matter their political leanings, may find distasteful. Or, on the other end, McSally could see a surge as she continues to double down on Kelly’s links to China, potentially smashing his “good guy” image.
Race to the WH Arizona Senate Win % as of 6/27
This will be an interesting race to watch unfold in light of the current climate. Recently, Kelly, the son of two police officers, announced that he didn’t view “defunding the police” as an option but instead supported reform and increased accountability. This demand has been chanted throughout massive protests across the country, but currently remains unpopular with only about 25-30% of Americans supporting it. It will be telling to see if his stance frustrates Arizona Democrats as Kelly tries to appeal to both sides.
Currently, the Arizona Senate seat looks like one of the most likely flips in the coming election - with Kelly projected to win about 85% of the time. However, with just under five months to go, there’s still a chance for McSally to claw her way to a narrow victory.
Check in here for live updates on the Arizona Senate Race, including projections, polls, fundraising, and analysis. Click here for projections on which party will win the Senate, updated daily.