Weekly Update: Trump Falters, Mitch Rises

Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)

Every week, I will break down the top three changes in both the Presidential & Senate Forecast. This week, the updates covers June 15th to June 24th:

President - Top Three Updates

1. Donald Trump & the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week

   Voters are turning against President Trump, who trails Joe Biden by more than any other point in his Presidency. His chances of winning have dropped from 18% to just 12%.
   The Race to the White House Forecast is specifically designed to be skeptical of huge changes in the polls. However, after three weeks of polling, this is not just a brief, momentary flash in the pan or the result of a few crooked polls.
   
   The forecast is probably underrating Trump’s chances a bit here - the pandemic and the economy has clearly put the political world in flux, and aggressive swings appear more likely this cycle then in past years. Trump’s pathway back remains the economy - where voters prefer him over Biden by ten percent in some polls. Right now, voters are prioritizing the corona virus and the protest against systemic racism - the two areas where Donald Trump often performs the worst.

2. Trouble in Paradise

   Mar-a-Lago may love Donald Trump, but he’s got his work cut out in the rest of the sunshine state. Florida has shifted from Tilt Democrat to Lean Democrat after yet another week of polling show Donald Trump is losing ground to Joe Biden. He now trails Biden by 5.4%.
   
   However, Democrats would be foolish to pop the champagne corks just yet, and there are two main reasons to have a healthy dose of skepticism here. First, if Trump cuts Biden lead down to 2 or 3%, chances are he will take a lead in the Florida polls. Second, Democrats led Republicans by 6% about two weeks before election day in the governor’s race in 2018, but Republicans pulled out the victory for arguably their biggest upset of 2018. As any Democrats who paid any attention in 2018, 2016, or 2000 knows far too well, you should never, ever, be too confident when it comes to Florida.

3. Minnesota Gives Trump the Cold Shoulder

   Minnesota has long looked like one of the best bets for Donald Trump to win of any of the states Clinton carried in 2016 - a state she won by less than 2%. As recently as May 20th, the forecast gave him as high as a 25% chance of an upset. Part of the reason it was so high is there was very little polling there - so we did not really know how Minnesotans felt. However, if the Gravis Marketing poll that showed him down by 16% is at all representative, Trump would probably be better spending his money elsewhere. Biden’s chances in Minnesota have risen to 95%.

Senate - Top 3 Updates

1. Kentucky

   After five weeks of bad news for Republicans in the Senate, Republicans finally got a respite, particularly in Kentucky - where Mitch McConnell has a poll showing him up by 20% against McGrath, and 14% against Booker. This is more than a little confusing, as another released a week earlier showed McGrath up 1%.
   This caused Democrats chances of winning the state to drop to 15%. Clearly, at least one of these polls has it wrong, or somehow the election has swung 20% in the blink of an eye. In the meantime, we will await the results of the Kentucky Democratic Primary over the next week to see who will take on Mitch.

2. Jamie Harrison’s Fundraising Machine

   Arguably, the biggest surprise of the cycle so far has been how in play South Carolina looks to be -at least early on. New FEC Fundraising (released before the primary) show Jamie Harrison crushing the fundraising game, raising almost as much as Lindsey Graham from individual donations. His chances of an upset have risen to 37%

3. Tommy Tuberville Takes the Lead in Alabama

   It was always going to be tough for Doug Jones to repeat the magic that helped him sneak out a victory in ruby-red Alabama back in 2018. Of course, it always helps when you are running against an alleged pedophile that does not think women are worthy of serving in public office. New polling has led Tuberville to open up a up by 11% - and the state to shift from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.