Weekly Update: Top 5 Changes in the WH & Senate Forecast Since June 1st

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Jun 11

Race for the White House Forecast

Former Vice President Joe Biden expanded his lead to a new high of 7.7% in the wake of the murder of George Floyd that spurred hundreds of thousands of Americans to take to the streets and protest police violence and systemic racism in America. This has been a rough two weeks for the President, who received scathing media coverage for his decision to have the national guard charge peaceful protesters with rubber bullets and tear gas to force them out of Lafayette Park. In poll after poll, at least 20% more Americans disapprove of his handling of the protest then approve. Trump has lost 0.7% in the last ten days. This may not sound like a lot, but this has actually been one of the steadiest elections in terms of national polling in the last seventy years, and this is biggest change so far in the first six months of 2020.

In 50,000 simulations, Biden wins 84%, Trump wins 15%, and they tie 1% of the time. On June 1st, Biden was winning 83%, Trump won 16%, and they tied 1% of the time.

Top Five Changes in the White House Forecast Since June 1st:

1. Iowa and Ohio are in Play

For most of the election, Iowa and Ohio have leaned Republican, but they are now two of the most tightly contested swing states in the nation. Biden has now caught and surpassed Trump in the Race to the White House polling average, and he cut his deficit in Iowa by 2/3. This doubles down on one of Biden’s biggest electoral strengths: he is performing well in every swing state, and can afford to lose ground with some demographic’s groups or regions while still having enough support to win the election. This is a real contrast to Hillary Clinton in 2016, who had a much narrower path to victory.

2. Biden Beginning to Break Away in Wisconsin

Biden has further consolidated his gains in Wisconsin on the strength of a new Fox News poll that had him up nine points over President Trump in 2012. This is a pretty monumental shift, as Trump and Biden were just about tied in the Badger state before the Coronavirus caused governors to shut down their state’s economies. On average, he’s now polling five points ahead. This is great news for the Biden Camp, but they shouldn’t be too cocky – Wisconsin in 2016 was one of the biggest upsets in a presidential race in the last twenty years Democrats. How much was Clinton beating Trump by? About five points.

3. Could Texas go Blue?

Democrats have long dreamed of winning the Lone Star State, and while Republican are still the clear favorites, recent polling has suggested Democrats might have an outside shot. In light of two recent polls showing Biden tied and one points behind in Texas, the Forecast now shows Democrats winning it just over 25% of the time.

4. Breaking with National Trends, Trump has a Pennsylvania Sized Silver Lining

It was a rough week for the President, but he got some good news in Pennsylvania. A Change Research poll showed the President up by four percent. He’s still trailing in the forecast average, but his deficit was cut to just three percent. Keep a close eye on the next few polls here to see if this is a blimp or a change in the race – because in the simulations where Trump wins Pennsylvania, he goes on to win the election 53% of the time.

5. Michigan does not look ready to Make America Great Again

Michigan is looking less and less competitive, and two polls in the last few days show the former Vice President up by double digits. Some things in politics are hard to figure out - but this one makes sense. For some bizarre reason, Donald Trump keeps making a series of Michigan specific political blunders that have really not helped his case here, including: Publicly musing to not send any more ventilators to Michigan if Governor Whitmer doesn’t start being nicer to him threatening to cut off federal aid to the state if they continue adopting absentee ballots in the face of Covid-19, and cheering on armed protesters inside the Capitol. Biden now has a 7.3% lead, and wins it over 90% of the time.

Race for the Senate Forecast:

Democrats are really starting to look like the favorites in the Race for the Senate. Democrat’s odds of winning the Senate grew by 6 to 64%, while Republicans chance’s fell down to their lowest ever, of the entire Senate Cycle, 24%.* It’s a pretty shocking change from a few months ago, when Senate Republicans were the favorites. Democrats have risen ahead on the strength of changes in the national political environment from the Corona-virus and economic recession, a talented class of Senate recruits, and remarkably high levels of support from small dollar donors.

*For those keeping score, the missing 11-12% are the times when both parties are tied at 50 each, with the party that wins the White House breaking the tie.

1. A Big Turnaround in Iowa

This was a pretty great week for Theresa Greenfield, who became the official Democrat nominee in Iowa after winning the primary with a commanding 20% victory. Greenfield was way behind Ernst in the polls early on, but she began gaining ground on her in May. Now, for the first time, Greenfield has surpass Joni Ernst in the polling average Just as importantly, she has significantly improved her name recognition and is now liked by 35% of Iowans, to 25% that disapprove. Ernst favorable numbers have continued to crash – leaving Greenfield as the very narrow favorite. Read more about what caused this race to change here:

2. Don’t Sleep on Kentucky

Democrats dreaming of knocking out Mitch McConnell got some exciting news this week when an RMG Research Poll gave Amy McGrath her first ever lead in Kentucky. Now, to be clear – this is going to be a very tough race. McGrath still trails by 1% in the Forecast, and Kentucky leans 30% Republican. However, McGrath definitely has a shot in this race. In light of new polling and drop in Mitch McConnell’s approval rating, her chances improved nine points to 35%.

3. Shocking News in South Carolina

One of the most surprising polls of the cycle came out of South Carolina, showing Jamie Harrison with a tie against Lindsey Graham. It’s good to have at least a little healthy skepticism here. The last pollster with an established record that polled South Carolina was Marist in February, and they showed Graham up by 17% - so its more then a little surprising to see such a different result.

Regardless, I don’t think we can write off Harrison – especially if this ends up being a wave election. He’s charismatic, has a compelling story and top-notch ads, and he’s been able to generate a ton of small dollar donors. Everything is going to need to go just right, but its not impossible. With the new poll, the forecast bumps his chances up to 30%. Fun fact: Jamie Harrison is just the latest talent to emerge from the 2017 election for DNC Chair, that in hindsight included a bizarrely star-studded contest including top tier presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, and of course current chair Tom Perez.

4. Mark Kelly is Rocketing Ahead in Arizona

Arizona was supposed to be one of the marquee races of 2020 – but former Astronaut Mark Kelly has run an incredible campaign and is starting to put this race out of reach. He’s broken fundraising records left and right on a surge of funding by small dollar donors, he has an excellent message, and he now has a double-digit lead against sitting Senator Martha McSally after a Fox News Poll showed him up 13%. Kelly has been slowly growing his lead every month since December – and he’s now the clear favorite, winning 84% of the time in a race that used to be a tossup.

5. John James is Falling Behind in Michigan

Finally, Republican Challenger John James is facing long odds in Michigan. He is Republican’s best chance to flip a seat next to Alabama where they are strongly favored, but Incumbent Senator Peters is starting to poll away from him. In all honesty, this isn’t really John James’ fault – who might be the best new recruit Republicans have this cycle, and the only challenger in his party to out fund-raise his opponent. Voters are actually giving him pretty high marks in approval polls, but he’s being dragged down by Donald Trump, and his falling numbers in Michigan. James had started to distance himself from the President – and he’ll face a tough decision on how much further to go in this direction in the coming months.