Weekly Update: Collins Regains Lead, Bullock Ahead in Montana
Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)
By: Logan Phillips
Date: July 4th
Every week, I will break down the top three changes in both the Presidential & Senate Forecast. This week, the updates covers June 25th to July 3rd.
President Top Three: Updates Forecast
Trump is No Longer Falling in the National Polls
After a month straight of weekly gains, Joe Biden’s lead against Donald Trump in the National Polls held steady at about 9.2%. This is encouraging news for the President, who has finally been able to steady his June plummet in the polls. However, his chances have still dropped a little bit more this week. Why? He has been down by over 8% for over 20 days now, so we now know this isn’t just a flash in the pan from a one-week bad news cycle. He’s going to need to pull off an even greater comeback then he did last time to win the election - but there are precedents even in recent history.
George H.W. Bush was down by five percent, in late June back in 1988, but he ended up being Dukakis by eight points. Just four years later, Clinton was in third place behind even Ross Perot and trailed Bush by six but ended up winning by six in November. Both Clinton and Bush had 12+% turnaround, which would be more than enough for Trump to take the lead in the popular vote against Biden. Essentially, Trump is down by a lot right now, but he can still come back and win the election.
The Show Me State Shows Biden Some Love
Is Donald Trump in trouble in Missouri? That’s what a shocking poll that had Biden up 2% suggested this week. This is, to put it mildly, very surprising in a state that leans almost 20% towards the Republican party. However, this isn’t the first poll to show the race more competitive then it should be. Biden probably won’t be getting his 270th vote from Missouri, but if he wins by a fair amount, Missouri could be the big cherry on top of his presidential sundae, much like Indiana was for Democrats in 2008.
Trump’s Disapproval Rating is a Mile High in Colorado:
Clinton won Colorado by only 5%, but Republicans looking to expand the map for Trump in 2020 did not exactly get promising news in 2018, when Democrats won the state by double digits in the House. Polling by PPP confirmed the depth of Trump’s challengers in Colorado, where he now trails by 16% and has a net disapproval of 17%.
Senate - Top 3 Updates
Susan Collins Back on Top in Maine
For the first time since February 15th, Susan Collins is now the ever so slight favorite to win the Senate Election in Maine after a poll showed her up eight percent. Take it with a few health grains of salt - the poll was sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) - who maybe, just maybe, has a horse in this race. Nonetheless, it’s the first poll since May, and the first poll since Collins has started spending on advertising more aggressively. We’ll need more information to know where the race stands - but right now it’s the second most competitive race in the Senate next to Montana, with Collins winning 53% and Democrat Sarah Gideon winning 47% of the time.
Marquee Matchup in Montana
Speaking of Montana, Governor Steve Bullock got some great news as a second straight poll shows him in the lead for the Senate. All reports suggest Bullock is doing an exceptional job guiding Montana through the COVID Crisis, and as of last week the state had the lowest infection rate in the nation. The United States has become more partisan in recent years, but Montanans are more independent minded then most states, and have a penchant for splitting their Presidential, Senate, and Gubernatorial votes. Bullock is now the slight favorite in the state, and leads by 4%. The next thing to keep an eye on? The FEC Fundraising Reports on July 15th. If either candidate has a decisive edge here, they will be the favorite.
In Texas, John Cornyn is the Clear Favorite - but there are Signs of Vulnerability
John Cornyn is not showing the same vulnerability that Ted Cruz did in 2018, and he remains the clear favorite. However, there is a few worrying signs for the Texan that suggest if Democrats M.J. Hegar or Royce West (who will compete in the primary on July 14th) run a great campaign, they might be able to squeak out a victory. First, although Cornyn leads by a touch under 9%, 22% voters remain undecided. That is by the far most of any competitive state in the nation. Second, Cornyn’s approval rating is now underwater - and a third of voters do not have an opinion on him. Both Democrats are also almost entirely unknown.
Basically, Texas is winnable by Democrats, but Cornyn starts out with a much stronger hand. Texas is an expensive state, so the candidates that have a fundraising edge will get a big boost here as they try to define their image and highlight their opponent’s negatives. Cornyn is currently easily out fundraising both his Democrats challengers - so Hegar or West will really need to capitalize on the nationwide small dollar donor energy more effectively in the Democratic party if they want to put this race in play.
In Texas ,32% approve of John Cornyn, 35% dissaprove, and 33% are undecided. To read more about this race, and see projections for every senate race, click on the picture.