The Iowa Senate Race is Now a Tossup

Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)

The Hawk-eye State has long been one of the most competitive states in American politics, but it’s rightward lurch left many feeling quite bullish on Senator Joni Ernst chances of winning re-election. It was Ernst, after all, that kicked off the first of many big wins for the G.O.P. when she burst onto the scene with arguably the most famous television ad of 2014. A veteran that grew up working on her family’s pig farm in Iowa, Ernst told voters that she used to castrate pigs, so she knew exactly how to take on the big spenders & corruption and make Washington squeal.

With a big lead in the polls and a fundraising advantage, the Race for the Senate Forecast showed Ernst firmly in the driver’s seat with a 77% chance of re-election. Now that advantage has completely disintegrated. Her lead in the polls? Gone. Her edge in fundraising? Significantly reduced. Today, her opponent, Theresa Greenfield, is the ever so slight favorite in the most closely contested race in the Senate thus far. How did things go so badly for Republican in Iowa?

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Democrats made a big gamble, going all in on a race that most pundits didn’t even think was in play. Money alone can’t win you an election – and if it’s tied to the wrong message and the wrong candidate, it can be like pouring cash down the drain. However, if you combine it with the right message, in the right moment, it can change the entire contours of a race. Democrats invested considerable resources to dominate the airwaves in Iowa, and used this advantage to exploit some of Ernst’s very real vulnerabilities, and capitalize on Greenfield’s strengths.

Joni Ernst’s big promise in 2014 was that she would stand up to the irresponsible spending and big deficits that had defined Washington for far too long. However, the 2018 Republican Tax bill that passed with her support has literally added trillions of dollars to America’s debt, without any corresponding measures to increase revenue or cut spending. These days, voters have become increasingly cynical about politics, and are desperate for politicians that will actually keep their promises and not jerk them around. There are few things more hazardous to a politician’s career then when you promise that you’ll be different, but voters think that you lied to them.

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Democrats are arguing that Ernst has forgotten about Iowa, and that the tax cuts were really just handouts to special interest. She has yet to find an effective way to counter these attacks, which have been devastating to her favorability numbers in Iowa. As recently as early March, a Des Moines Register poll found Ernst had a fairly strong net approval rating, with ten percent more Iowans supporting her then disapproving. It has now plummeted 17% to a net -7.5% in the Forecast approval rating average.

The other side of the coin is that Democrat Theresa Greenfield has emerged from the primary as a very strong candidate. She entered the race as a political neophyte – completely unknown to over 70% of voters as recently as two months ago. This is beginning to change. Greenfield used her campaign’s impressive small dollar donor apparatus combined with significant help from the party and outside groups to introduce herself to Iowan voters in a series of biopic ads.

Greenfield grew up on her family farm in rural Iowa in a small town of 500. She spent most of her childhood working on the farm, flying with her dad in his crop duster, and taking care of hogs. At 24 years old, tragedy struck - her husband Rod, died in a workplace accident, leaving Greenfield alone to raise a 13-month old with another baby on the way. While raising two kids, she worked through community college, became a community planner, and started her own small business.

Here’s the message Greenfield is sending Iowans in this ad: I’m Iowan born and bred, I know what our way of life is like – and I know what it’s like to struggle. Greenfield ends her ad saying, “I’ll never forget who I am, where I’m from, and who I’m fighting for.” Do you see the hidden message? Joni Ernst has forgotten about Iowans, and isn’t fighting for them anymore. It’s an exceptionally well-crafted message that fits American’s frustration with this current moment in politics. It appeals to their sense of optimism that says we can be better then this.

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Up to this point, Democrats' gamble has materialized perfectly for them, and Republicans' decision to wait until after the primary to attack Greenfield appears to be a pretty serious tactical mistake. Now, 10% more Iowans like her than dislike her. Tearing down a well-liked candidate is much harder than defining one who is completely unknown.

Beginning this week, Republicans are launching $15 million dollars worth of negative attack ads aimed at tanking Greenfield’s image. Pay special attention to Greenfield’s approval rating in the coming weeks and months – which will be updated right here after every new poll. If it continues to go up, Greenfield will be in a great position to establish herself as the favorite in the race. If it comes crashing down, Ernst will likely regain her status as the front-runner.