The Case for Elizabeth Warren as Vice President
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)
By: Logan Phillips
Date: August 1st
In the interest of full transparency, I volunteered for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign during the primary.
Elizabeth Warren
Pros:
1. She Literally Had a Plan for This: Back in January, when the Coronavirus was raging in China and the first known cases had arrived on America’s shores, Elizabeth Warren was raising the alarm. She argued Congress needed to immediately increase its investment in the Public Health Emergency Fund to shore up America’s defense. She called on President Trump to treat the virus like the serious threat that it is. Warren’s foresight looks Svengali in retrospect; it enhances her argument that she is prepared and ready to govern. A Biden & Warren ticket could make an especially powerful contrast in competency against Trump & Pence, especially on the all-important coronavirus issue, likely to determine the election in November.
2. Personal Tragedy: It’s not just Warren’s thoughtful preparation that give her voice on Coronavirus authenticity. She suffered a heartbreaking loss in April, when her brother Donald Herring died from Covid-19:
“I’m grateful to the nurses and other front-line staff who took care of my brother, but it is hard to know that there was no family to hold his hand or to say ‘I love you’ one more time. And now there’s no funeral for those of us who loved him to hold each other close. I will miss my brother.” - Elizabeth Warren
There is something unbearably tragic in the fact that one of the few politicians who took the coronavirus threat seriously, from first learning of it, is the one who lost her brother, whom could not even visit in the hospital to hold his hand as he died. No one wants to have this story to tell, but nonetheless, telling it makes her voice powerful and emotionally compelling. Biden argues that Trump’s mismanagement of the virus during the last eight months cost American lives; his message could be turbocharged by a running mate who can personally attest to the pain this virus has wreaked on families across the United States.
3. Elizabeth Knows How to Govern: If Elizabeth has a superpower, it’s building well-run bureaucracies and using soft power to help advance an administration’s agenda. Despite being an outside fire-brander during the Obama administration’s early days, when she designed and built the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, even the Treasury Department’s Senior Staff, whom she previously lambasted, admitted that she was excellent at her job, left their differences behind, and with her, built a great team. The agency became arguably the government’s strongest watchdog and protector of consumer rights.
Warren rose to the top tier of 2020 Democratic candidates, because she is clever, thoughtful, and details extensively how she plans to use government power to improve American lives. At a time when so many agencies and departments are underemployed and in disarray, Warren can help Biden rebuild America’s civil service. Plus, she easily passes the litmus test; Warren is ready to be President on day one.
4. Shores up a Key Biden Weakness: Joe Biden may have excelled with the black vote in the 2020 primary, but he never broke through in the same way, with young black voters, nor for that matter, with young Latino voters, both of which preferred Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Warren was consistently named the number two most-liked candidate in polls among both constituencies; this remains Biden’s 2020 Achilles heel.
Stan Greenberg, a leading Democratic pollster, and hardly a progressive stalwart, argued that Joe Biden should select Warren, because the biggest problem Biden faces is a lack of unity in the Democratic party. Clinton lost in 2016, in part, because she failed to win over enough Sanders voters. Of those Biden is considering for VP, Warren is clearly the best positioned to help this challenge. Perhaps it will not matter in 2020, because Trump is so loathed by Democrat voters, but this could be lethal to Democrats in 2022. This is where Warren could potentially be a game changer – especially if voters feel that she is a valued voice in the Biden administration.
5. Remember Mike Bloomberg? Now think about Mike Pence: The Vice Presidential Debate does not normally change the dynamic of a Presidential campaign. The exception was in 2012, when Biden staunched the bleeding following Obama’s abysmal first debate, by crushing Romney’s vice-presidential candidate, Paul Ryan.
Looking for someone to recreate that 2012 VP magic? Senator Warren is the clear choice. She was the best debater in a talented 2020 field. She managed to consistently tie her answers to a clear message, differentiating herself from her opponents. Winning debates is not about scoring points, it’s about making arguments to the American people about why her vision is best for them and their country. Far more than most, Warren stays focused on that larger picture. She can execute any general election argument which Biden wants her to make.
Mike Pence will get a tougher fight from Warren then he got from Tim Kaine. If Biden wants her to play the role of attack dog, her decimation of Michael Bloomberg demonstrated her ability to more than answer the call.
Cons:
1. Game Changer: Warren has a voice that can cut through the noise, get press coverage, and change the narrative. Normally this is a strength, but it might not be in 2020. Biden is in an unusually strong position, so there is an inherent risk to choosing someone that could be a stand-alone game changer, especially when one of the cornerstones of Biden’s strategy is to let Donald Trump destroy Donald Trump. There might be something to be said about prioritizing risk-mitigation. To be fair, Biden can probably have more confidence that Warren, more than in anyone else on his short list, will avoid creating unexpected new headaches for Biden’s campaign. She has excellent message discipline and she rarely makes gaffes or mistakes.
2. Too Progressive?: Given that Warren is a strong progressive, there is a risk she may alienate some of the suburban voters who lean conservative, but cannot stand Trump. Although the polls show a Biden-Warren ticket outperforming all other combinations, the Trump campaign has been making a case that Biden is a Trojan Horse for the left. If Biden selects Warren, he will give Trump more gas to cook with on this argument.
3. The Senate: If Warren is sworn in as Vice President, she would leave a vacant Senate seat in Massachusetts. When Senator Ted Kennedy passed away in 2010, Massachusetts voters replaced him, via special election, with Republican Scott Brown. Their vote cost Democrat Senators their filibuster-proof majority and by extension, cost them a public option in Obamacare.
It’s unlikely this situation will repeat itself, as Massachusetts has shifted 10% towards Democrat in the last six years of Senate Partisan Lean. The real cost is that they may be with a Republican Senator for a few months, although Even so, there is a potential loophole that could prevent this outcome. The Democrat-controlled Massachusetts State Legislature could join six other states currently requiring their Governors to appoint U.S Senators from the same party as the outgoing member.
4. Warren’s Brings No Racial Diversity to the Ticket: Black voters, and especially black women, gave Joe Biden their nomination. Some voters will undoubtedly feel betrayed if he does not return their favor by selecting a black female running mate. I could be wrong, but I think this is more a moral argument then a political one, at least for 2020. Trump is intensely disliked by most Black voters, especially the older voters that supported Biden in the primary.
However, the symbolic power for every black girl growing up in the U.S., to see someone who looks like her in the second highest office in the land, is undeniable. 155 years after slavery and 55 years after Jim Crow laws, individual states still have never elected a black female governor. At a time when America has the chance, but not the certainty, of potential racial progress and civil rights reform, this would be a powerful statement by Biden, adding an important historic symmetry to his legacy as the Vice President to the first Black President, and the President with the first Black (and female) Vice President.
For what it is worth, Warren has an excellent record in prioritizing the elimination of racism. Throughout the primary, campaign activists from the Black Economic Alliance Presidential Forum, to the She the People Forum, routinely came away with glowing reviews of Warren’s passion for fighting racial injustices, as well as her thoughtful and credible plans to uproot systemic racism in government and society. Furthermore, Warren was the highest rated of any candidate in the Center for Urban and Racial Equity’s “Racial Justice Scorecard”.
