Georgia Senate Runoff Forecast & Polls

Just under two years ago, Democrats stunned the nation when they pulled off a double victory in the Peach State to secure a Senate majority. Thanks to their strong midterm performance, the Senate majority has already been settled, but Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock will need to win again to earn a full six-year term. He narrowly outran Republican Herschel Walker on election day but fell just short of winning the 50% he needed to avoid a runoff.

The Georgia Senate Runoff forecast calculates the odds of both candidates winning, using factors like the candidate’s performance in the first round, the latest polling, and Georgia’s partisan lean to make the most accurate prediction possible. Our Senate forecast called over 97% of Senate races correctly, which was tied for the best in the nation in 2022.
New Feature - On Election day, we added a new Demographic Poll Tracker, which shows how each group (by race, religion, etc.) is planning to vote according to polls.