Arizona Governor Forecast & Polls

Follow our new Forecast for the GA Senate Runoff!

RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Only one Democrat has been elected to lead the Grand Canyon State since the end of the 1990s, and yet Arizona might just be the Democrats' best chance to gain a new Governorship, short of the deep blue states of Massachusetts and Maryland where Republican incumbents have passed on re-election. Democrats have chosen Secretary of State Katie Hobbs as their nominee. The Republican nominee is Kari Lake, a former reporter for KSAZ-TV. Lake is running an anti-establishment campaign, hoping voters want a political newcomer as governor. However, Lake could be hurt by her eager embrace of election conspiracies, including her support for imprisoning her opponent, Katie Hobbs, because she certified the 2020 election.

In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation, and correctly called President Biden’s and Senator Kelly’s narrow Arizona victory months before the election.

This forecast is no longer being updated - but you can follow our new GA Senate Runoff forecast here - which succesfully predicted a runoff, and was within 0.4% of predicting Raphael Warnock’s first round lead.