Kansas Governor Forecast & Polls

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RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Four years ago, Laura Kelly pulled off a stunning 5% victory in deep-red Kansas, arguably the most impressive win of any Democrat in 2018. Kelly's win was possible due to a combination of well-timed events. First, the Republican state party was reeling from former Governor Sam Brownback’s tenure, who won the governorship on a platform promising massive tax cuts for Kansas - which he delivered in his first term. However, the cuts failed to spur growth, and Kansas was left with a severe revenue shortage that threatened to devastate school and health care funding. The crisis caused Brownback's disapproval to surge to 66%. Second, the GOP nominated Kris Kobach, a candidate widely seen as too extreme. Third and finally, Kelly exploited that opportunity by running a strong campaign focused on reducing the cost of health care for ordinary Kansans.

To win again, Kelly will have to build a campaign based on her first term, a challenging feat in a state like Kansas. That's why many in the Republican party view Kelly as the most vulnerable Democratic Governor, especially considering that Republicans successfully recruited Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who won re-election by 18% in 2018. However, counting Kelly out would be a mistake. She has become one of the most popular Democratic governors in the country according to approval rating polls. Kelly could also benefit from stronger than expected democratic turnout if Democrats remain as energized in November as they were in early August when they turnout out at a high rate to defeat a referendum aiming to weaken abortion protections.

Our Kansas Governor Interactive Forecast will be tracking the polling and predicting the result of the election, updated every day with the latest data. Our state forecasts go further than anyone else when it comes to using data to show all aspects of the political battleground, including the latest polling, current fundraising levels, a map showing the partisan lean of each county, approval ratings for every candidate, and a trendline of the state’s shifting politics since 1965. In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation, and correctly called President Biden’s and Senator Kelly’s narrow Arizona victory months before the election.