2022 House Election - Kansas
RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives
Kansas Republicans are seeking to replace Congresswoman Sharice Davids with former GOP Chair Amanda Adkins, which would give the Republican party a full sweep of all four Congressional seats in the state for the first time since 2016. Davids beat Adkins in 2020 by 10%, and would have been the favorite in 2022 if Republicans hadn’t used their advantage in the State Legislature to redraw her district into more Republican-friendly turf. Davids, who entered Congress in 2018 as one of the first two Native American congresswomen in American history and is a former mixed martial artist, won’t go down without a fight. Her district still only leans 2% to the right of the national popular vote, so she can win if she continues her record of outperforming national democrats.
One final factor to consider: Breaking the national trend, Kansas Democrats turned out at considerably higher rates than their Republican counterparts during the primary to successfully defeat an amendment that would have reduced the state's constitutional protections for abortion. If Democrats can repeat the trick and continue to be as highly engaged in November, Davids would probably win her third term in Congress.
RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. It called over 93% of races right, and outperformed almost all its top competitors at predicting the final margin in close Senate races. We’re projecting the result for all 34 Senate Races up in 2022.
RacetotheWH is already forecasting the entire 2021-2022 Gubernation Cycle. Click here for the national picture.
Senate Forecast
Predictions for the 2022 Senate Election, by one of the nation’s best forecasters. Updated after every poll.
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