Michigan Governor Forecast & Polls

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Four years ago, Gretchen Whiter rode the 2018 blue wave to a blowout victory, promising Michiganders that she would "fix the damn roads" and invest in education. She has since become a rising star in the Democratic party and even made Joe Biden's finalist list for the Vice Presidency. Her national presence will be sure to fuel the grassroots fundraising of both her campaign and her opponents. Whitmer's almost 10% victory in 2018 showed her skillset as a candidate, and the newly passed infrastructure bill promises to help her meet her commitments to improve Michigan's infrastructure even amidst a series of historic economic and health crises brought in by the pandemic. 

The GOP views Michigan as one of their top targets, and it's easy to see why they think they have a fighting shot. The GOP has performed better here than they did with the national popular vote in the last two presidential elections. Michiganders are split evenly on Whitmer, with 49% each having a favorable and unfavorable opinion of her in our polling average (as of the time this forecast launched in early January). The GOP candidate will be Tudor Dixon, who has easily dispatched her opponents to secure the nomination in a primary that was wild and unpredictable until the final weeks when Dixon pulled away in early July.

Our Michigan Primary forecast correctly called her victory, predicting she would get 43.9% of the vote. The forecast has now been upgraded to the General Election edition.  We also launched new House Race Predictions for Michigan.