Michigan Senate Predictions & Polls
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Michigan is one of the nation's foremost swing states - but Republicans have been locked on the outside looking in when it comes to the state's Senate delegate. They are trying to win their first Senate race since 1994, and their opening became stronger once long-time Senator Debbie Stabenow decided not to run for re-election - leaving an open seat in Michigan for just the second time since 1976.
A large number of candidates are running on both sides of the aisle to seek the nomination - which makes this an unwieldy race to forecast. Our Michigan Senate forecast is processing over 40 viable general election matchups and combines them into one overall projection for the race
The early frontrunner for Democrats is Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin - a rising star in the party first elected in the 2018 blue wave. Slotkin is one of the party's best fundraisers and has the most endorsements. Her greatest challenge comes from actor, lawyer, and union organizer Hill Harper. In the Republican primary, the top two contenders at the start of the race are former Detroit Police Chief James Craig and former Congressman Mike Rogers. Congressman Peter Meijer is considering launching a bid as well.
Our forecast is updated daily with the latest polling and information. Last cycle, RacetotheWH correctly called that Democrats would win a majority in the Senate, and called all but one race correctly.
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