Pennsylvania Senate Predictions & Polls
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Republicans will have their work cut out if they want to topple Democratic Senator Bob Casey - who is the first and only Democrat in state history to win six statewide elections. His most recent was a 2018 landslide victory against Congressman Lou Barletta that he won by a net 13%.
The Republican nominee will be Businessman David McCormick, who came just 950 votes short of securing his party's nomination in the 2022 Senate race to Dr. Mehmet Oz. This time around, the Republican party has gone to great lengths to clear the field for McCormick, including successfully convincing Doug Mastriano to refrain from running two years after he lost by double digits to Governor Josh Shapiro in 2022.
The GOP took a calculated risk by embracing McCormick from the start of this election cycle. He has a fine resume as the former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury and CEO of Bridgewater, but that doesn't always translate into being a strong campaigner. Decades of past Senate elections prove that candidates who have never won a general election before do considerably worse on average than those with a winning electoral record. The GOP hopes he will be the exception to the rule - and it's certainly possible he outperforms. Pastor Raphael Warnock, Astronaut Mark Kelly, and Businessman Glenn Youngkin all rode into office running in challenging races despite never winning an election before.
Our Senate Forecast predicts Casey’s chances of winning another term against McCormick. We also explore how Pennsylvania voted in recent elections, and what that can tell us about the 2024 election.
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