Georgia Senate Forecast & Polls

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In the first eighteen years of the millennium, the Democratic party was all but locked out of Georgia politics by a dominant Republican party. That changed in 2018 when Stacey Abrams put the political world on notice when she barely lost to Governor Kemp, proving Democrats were now contenders in the Peach State. Raphael Warnock. It provided a blueprint for a successful Democratic coalition based on the mobilization of black and Latino voters combined with persuasion politics aimed at white, college-educated voters. In 2020, they capitalized on their new-found potential and won a triple victory, capturing Georgia's 16 electoral votes, and winning both Senate elections in the January runoff.

Now, Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock will be running once again, as his victory in the last cycle was to finish out the term of retiring Republican Senator Johnny Isakson. Warnock outperformed both Joe Biden and Jon Ossoff in both November and January, and he’s hoping he can maintain that level of support in 2022. If neither candidate secures at least 50% of the vote, then the elections will once again be decided in a January runoff. He’ll be facing Republican former football star Republican Herschel Walker. His star power will be an asset in the general election, but he carries a considerable risk for Republicans, because he has a history of serious scandals. A protective order was issued against Walker by a Texas judge after he threatened to shoot his wife on multiple occasions.

Our Senate forecast tracks all the latest polling in the Georgia Senate race and projects the final result. In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation, and our single best state was Georgia, where we correctly predicted a Democratic triple victory. Our projected margin of victory for Biden was off by just 0.6%.