Mike Pence is the 2024 GOP Frontrunner
By: Logan Phillips
Date: 11/30
Candidates that begin a Presidential election as the early leaders don’t always hold on to their advantage or come close to victory. Neither Jeb Bush nor Rudy Giuliani ever won a state. However, if the top candidates have a message that connects well with the moment, and has the qualities that voters are looking for in their nominee that cycle, they’ll have an excellent chance at victory. They have a considerable advantage in deep fields over the lesser known candidates that are unable to get voter’s sustained attention or are passed over because they don’t seem to have a viable path to victory.
In a Trumpless primary, Mike Pence has the best starting hand of any contender for the Republican nomination. 30% of primary supports say they'll support his candidacy - far more than any of the other contenders. Surprisingly, even this early, candidates that are consistently polling above 20% do remarkably well in Presidential elections. From 2000 to 2020, there have been thirteen candidates that had at least 20% in the earliest possible national polls for that cycle. Seven or just over half won.
The most recent high polling early candidate was Joe Biden, who benefited from a groundswell of support after eight years of serving as one of the nation’s most influential Vice Presidents. While many bright political minds had doubts about the durability of his support, Biden began the race in first place, and finished in first place, only falling to second for a few weeks out of the entire cycle after a poor finish in the New Hampshire primary.
The takeaway here is that Pence’s early polling edge is nothing to sneeze at, and we’d be wise to consider him the front runner. It’s also true that it doesn’t mean Pence will have a glide path to the nomination, or that he’ll even be a top contender. Chris Christie and Marco Rubio were above 20% in 2013, and Christie was out after New Hampshire, while Rubio finished in third place.
A Pence Candidacy
As a nominee, Pence has some considerable strengths. He has the highest favorable in the party at a net +71% and can make a stronger claim to the Trump mantle than most. He's proven to be a skilled debater in back to back cycles, outright beating Tim Kaine, and holding his own against a talented Kamala Harris. Early polling shows Pence has deeper wells of support among older voters, and whites without a college degree.
His natural base would likely be a combination of evangelicals and Republicans that are particularly high on President Trump. My impression is that his best early states could be Iowa and South Carolina. Both have significant numbers of evangelical voters, and Iowa has a high number of white voters without college degrees. Of course, this is assuming the primary calendar is maintained. I expect it will be for Republicans at least for now, but Democrats appear to be primed to change the map.
The Trump Factor
This is predicated, of course, on Donald Trump sitting 2024 out. In a break down I’ll be releasing shortly, I’ll argue that if Trump runs he'll be the primary frontrunner. However, there still remains a genuine shot that the GOP could still go in a different direction even with Trump in the race. That alternative candidate will almost certainly not be Mike Pence.
Photo Credit: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead
One of the key strengths that underscore Mike Pence position in the primary is that he has a proven track record as a Trump style Republican that stood by the Presidents when others wouldn't, and he'll like to argue he can win with the same type of politics in a bit less divisive package. That argument implodes if he's running against his former boss, who will be eager to tear him to shreds.
Pence would have equally two awful choices. If he doesn’t return fire, any attempts he makes to project strength will look like a joke, and his vice presidency will get ripped apart by his former boss. If he firmly stands up to Trump and returns fire, he’s going to lose some of Trump’s most dedicated supporters that would be his base if Trump exited the race. Frankly, the latter is probably his better option, but don’t expect voters to give carte blanche on such attacks. Donald Trump has always been held to a different standard that likely won’t be extended to his fellow competitors.
There’s another way Trump could serious cudgel Pence's hopes of victory. If he continually flirts with 2024 but doesn't pull the trigger, Pence could be in a bind, waiting to delay his launch until after the President makes a decision. Hypothetically, he could be pushed back until mid-summer of 2023. If the 2020 primary is any guide, that would give his opponents months to build up their campaign infrastructure, and win over voters to their coalitions. A lot of would-be Pence supporters might have left him for other candidates by then.
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