South Dakota Forecast & Polls

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Back in 2018, Kristi Noem overcame a surprisingly strong challenge from the Democratic State Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton, winning by just 3.4%. Noem quickly became a national figure and a Darkhorse for the presidential nomination in 2024, but she’ll have to first overcome another challenge that polls are showing might be a lot more competitive than the conventional wisdom would suggest. Noem is still the favorite - South Dakota leans 31% toward Republicans.

At launch, the polling we have is from a Kristi Noem internal and an unreleased South Dakota State University poll. Our sources confirmed the authenticity of both of these polls - but to be frank, we should take these with a grain of salt. We have included them in the forecast to due an absence of public polling, as it's the only guide post we have right now. Hopefully, we will have more polls by election day.

In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation, and correctly called President Biden’s and Senator Kelly’s narrow Arizona victory months before the election.