Iowa 2024 GOP Primary Polling & Predictions

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Designed by Logan Phillips

The 2024 GOP Primary starts with the Iowa Caucus - which serves the critically important role of consolidating the field. In most recent primaries, the winner of the Iowa Caucus became one of the top contenders for the nomination - even when they were polling in the single digits just weeks earlier.

On this page, we use the current polling to predict the results of the Iowa election if it were to be held tomorrow. This is more of a “Now-Cast” than a forecast. Primary elections in Iowa are fluid and ever-changing, so expect these numbers to change frequently. 

We also project the number of delegates each candidate would win. This is critically important in other states - because the nomination isn’t won by the candidate that gets the most votes but instead by the candidate that wins the most delegates. However, in Iowa, the storylines are a bit more important. A surprise second-place finishing can provide rocket power to a flagging campaign and instantly make them a top contender. 

Finally, we’ve included a few key signals here that could provide early indicators of which candidates are best positioned to rise. Keep a close eye on which candidates voters say are their second choice, who has strong favorable/unfavorable ratings with voters, and how each candidate is performing with key demographic groups.

In 2022, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasters in the nation. We came the closest to predicting the GOP’s final # of seats in both the House and Senate -and we’re already forecasting the 24 Senate Election.

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