First Look at the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Interactive Feature Created & Designed by Logan Phillips
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We’ve got a few years to go before the Republican primary formally gets underway, but the shadow boxing has already started. It will ramp up considerably in the coming months, and we'll get a much better idea of who is going to run, and who's going to sit this one out.
Believe it or not, the data we have right now can actually tell us a great deal about the top contenders. Since 2000, candidates polling at an average of 20% or higher in the earliest national polls went on to become the nominee just over half the time. This is excellent news for Mike Pence, who at the launch of this feature is polling in first at 29% when Trump doesn’t run. As I recently argued, this positions him as the early front runner in the election.
However, while having the best starting hand is certainly a boon to his chances, it assures Pence nothing. Plenty of candidates had promising beginnings, only to fall far short. Giuliani led the Republican primary field in polling with over 20% as early as December of 2004 and maintained his lead in almost every poll until less than thirty days before the Iowa Caucus. By January, Giuliani's support had been cut in half, McCain surged ahead, and he never even won a primary.
The interactive feature breaks down three things:
Primary polling has by far the most predictive value, and I'm keeping two versions - one where Donald Trump doesn't run, and one where he does. Naturally, the actual results in the primary will look very different from the polling today, but candidates polling higher today have a much better shot at mounting a serious bid than the average candidate at 0-2%.
Favorable Ratings with All Americans - This is an early indication of the general election appeal of the candidates. Most of them are not well known yet, although a few like Tim Scott have made a favorable impression. Donald Trump J.R. is on the opposite end of the spectrum. While he is polling in second behind Mike Pence and has solid favorables in his party, he's far and away the least popular candidate.
Favorable Ratings with Just Republicans - Next to the polling itself, this is one of the best indicators of candidates that have a lot of room to grow in the party. These numbers bode particularly well for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Nicki Haley, and Lindsey Graham.
This feature was last updated on December 8th. I'll update it when there is new polling.
The Data
The Republican Primary polling average weighs each poll by sample size, recency, and quality of the pollster, similar to the method I used for polling averages for the 2020 Presidential and Senate Elections.
Polls Used:
1. McLaughlin (11/27)
2. Morning Consult (11/25)
3. YouGov (11/26)
4. Seven Letter Insights (11/22)
5. Echelon Insights (11/18)
6. Leger (11/6)
7. McLaughlin (11/5)
8. Leger ( 8/9)
9. Echelon Insights (8/20)
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